College Football Best Bets: 4 Noon Picks, Predictions for FSU vs. Clemson & More
Photo by Jeff Moreland/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Devin Leary (Kentucky)
Week 4 is looking like one of the best slates of the 2023 college football season.
And while we enjoy the marquee matchups, there's always more ways to make things interesting from a betting perspective. Our experts have four best bets for the noon slate, including Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt, Florida State vs. Clemson and more.
So, dive in below for the top college football odds, picks and best bets for the noon games.
Saturday's Noon College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Florida State vs. Clemson
Everyone was ready to write off the Tigers after their opening-night disaster in Durham.
It turns out the Dukies just might be a top-20 football team in the country.
The fact of the matter is Florida State hasn’t beaten the Clemson since 2014, and until it proves otherwise, I trust Dabo Swinney’s group more in this rivalry matchup.
Florida State looked pretty sloppy last week against Boston College, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.
I know Cade Klubnik hasn’t looked razor sharp to start the year, but he settled in a bit last week, and I believe he’ll have some real chances to make some plays down the field in this one.
While I think Clemson has a great chance of winning this game outright, go ahead and take the couple of points, as this could absolutely be a tight game where weird things happen late.
Florida State has to get over a mental hurdle and finally beat the Tigers, and I’m not sold that it’s ready to do that Saturday afternoon.
Give me the Tigers as a short home underdog.
Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt
It’s time for everyone to get aboard the Big Blue Express. This is not your grandfather’s Kentucky team.
Devin Leary is showing signs of rebounding from a tough campaign at NC State that ended in a season-ending injury.
And spoiler alert: He’s a way better college quarterback than Will Levis ever was.
It’s great to see him getting back to his usual self, even if it’s in another uniform. In fact, he’s doing such a good job that the Wildcats are ranked No. 1 in Offensive Explosiveness, and his PFF grade is climbing toward his career high (80.4 now vs. 84.6 in 2021).
I foresee this passing attack being a problem for a defense that ranks 80th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 92nd in Passing PPA/Play Allowed.
But the area I’m most concerned with is Vanderbilt’s inability to create big plays on defense, where it ranks in the bottom five in Havoc Created. If you let Leary sit back in the pocket with little to no pressure, he will happily dice you up all game.
I’m more than happy to back the better team, and I think this spread should be closer to three touchdowns. We have it projected at Kentucky -18.5, and once this offense gets going, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a blowout for an easy cover.
Big Blue Nation!
Oklahoma vs. Cincinnati
By Alex Hinton
TCU and Utah were powers in the Mountain West, and both earned BCS bowl bids. However, when they moved up to the Big 12 and Pac-12, respectively, it took them a few years to build up their rosters and get back to the level they had become accustomed to in the MWC.
TCU went 7-6 and 4-8 in 2012 and 2013, respectively, before going 23-4 over the next two seasons. Utah went 8-5, 5-7 and 5-7 in its first three seasons in the Pac-12. It has now won the last two Pac-12 Championships.
Cincinnati has dominated the AAC over the last five years and earned a CFP berth in 2021 as a Group of Five program. However, the core of that team is now making names for themselves in the NFL.
Like TCU and Utah, better days are ahead for Cincinnati in the Big 12. But they will not come on Saturday.
In its Big 12 opener, Cincinnati will face the program that has been the class of the conference. Oklahoma has been on a mission this season. It’s 3-0 against the spread and has outscored its opponents, 167-28, in the first three games.
To illustrate how good Oklahoma has been offensively, quarterback Dillon Gabriel has 14 incompletions and 11 touchdown passes while averaging 11.3 yards per attempt.
Oklahoma ranks third in Success Rate and seventh in Passing Explosiveness. Cincinnati is 131st in defending Explosiveness, which is not where you want to be against Oklahoma.
Cincinnati has a win at Pitt this season, but it followed that up by losing to Miami (OH) in overtime at home. Quarterback Emory Jones threw two interceptions and completed just 52% of his passes in that game.
After watching Jones at both Florida and Arizona State, I have little confidence he’ll fare much better against a Brent Venables led-defense.
Oklahoma should win this game handily, as Action Network projects the Sooners to win this game by 19.1 points. SP+ projects Oklahoma as a 16.9-point winner this week. Here, we need the Sooners to win by just two touchdowns.
I love the Sooners in this spot, and I would take the spread up to -16.5 at these odds.
Virginia Tech vs. Marshall
At first glance, it seems like the under is the play in this game, given the quarterback situation at Virginia Tech and the strength of the Marshall defense heading into Week 4.
However, a glance under the hood leads me to believe the total is too low in this game for a couple of reasons.
Virginia Tech starting quarterback Grant Wells is nursing an ankle injury and will be unlikely to get the start for the second straight week. Consistent with last season and through two games this season, Wells has struggled, and irrespective of injury, it appears that there was going to be a change under center.
Baylor transfer quarterback Kyron Drones got the start last weekend against Rutgers and gave the Hokies' offense a semblance of explosiveness that's been evading the unit in the last year. Drones was not perfect — going 19-for-32 (59%) for 190 yards with one touchdown and one interception — but he did enough to show that he’s deserving of a second start.
A dual-threat, Drones also contributed 74 yards on the ground, contributing a total of 264 yards of total offense against a Big Ten opponent.
Marshall will host the Hokies with the sixth-ranked scoring defense in the country, allowing just 16.0 points per game. Marshall has been impressive, but the quality of its opponent should be discounted when handicapping this total.
In two games, the Thundering Herd have faced FCS Albany and East Carolina. Neither team is an offensive juggernaut, with FCS Albany tied for 61st in FCS scoring offense and East Carolina ranking 128th in FBS.
Given what Drones was able to do in his first start for Virginia Tech last weekend, I think this is a permanent changing of the guard under center for Virginia Tech and should result in a more potent offense.
The signs of offensive life should translate to this weekend, as well, as Drones familiarizes himself with the scheme and gains experience. Look for Drones to keep the Hokies competitive against a Marshall defense that’s getting too much love from Vegas early in the season.
The weather in Huntington looks to feature perfect fall football weather, with sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-60s at kickoff.
Based on data season to date, my model is projecting the total at 45.5 points. I recommend taking the over at 42 or higher.
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