Missouri vs Georgia Odds & Picks: Expect Plenty of Offense
Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Missouri’s Luther Burden III (left) and Theo Wease (right).
Missouri vs Georgia Odds
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +475 |
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -650 |
The Missouri Tigers deserve a celebration after winning seven games for the first time since the 2018 season.
Head coach Eli Drinkwitz has his first winning season in Columbia, as the SEC East squad will attend a third consecutive bowl game. With the successful season comes the biggest roadblock on the schedule: a date with Georgia to determine the leader in the division.
The Bulldogs have been in binary mode all season, with no interest in covering early-season games against UT Martin, South Carolina, UAB or Auburn.
Once the calendar turned to October, Georgia flexed its explosive muscles despite losing its best offensive player in tight end Brock Bowers.
The Bulldogs have scored 131 points over the past 12 quarters of SEC play, so the ceiling for the offense is unknown with four games to go.
If Georgia shows up to this Week 10 divisional clash uninterested, Missouri has a chance to be the East representative in Atlanta.
Missouri's recent offensive consistency on offense can be attributed to new offensive coordinator Kirby Moore. Drinkwitz was adamant at SEC Media Days about handing the offense over to the former Fresno State coordinator.
This has been a balanced attack, frequently lining up in 11 personnel with a handful of offensive plays in 10 and 12.
Missouri has an even distribution of inside and outside zone play calls, but success had eluded the offense. The Tigers rank outside the top 100 in Line Yards, producing an Offensive Stuff Rate that's near dead last in the nation.
The positive Success Rate and explosives come with a passing offense led by quarterback Brady Cook. The junior is having the best season of his career, led by a 20:7 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio.
Cook may have the best weapon in college football in Luther Burden III, the highest-graded slot receiver by PFF.
— go to ➡️ collegefootballnetwork.com (@PickettsPool) October 21, 2023
Coordinator Blake Baker has produced a stout rush defense, as the Tigers place top-20 in Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The 3-3-5 defense has been aggressive with blitz on 42% of snaps but has also left the defense open on the back end. Missouri has allowed plenty of explosives in standard downs, compiled by a rank outside the top 75 in coverage grading and against the big play.
Missouri has given up an average of 4.2 points in 39 opponent drives across the 40-yard line.
With the loss of Bowers, the expectation was Georgia would become a more vertical passing team. Offensive coordinator Mike Bobo runs a slightly different style of offense than predecessor Todd Monken, relying on play-action passing to generate more downfield completions.
The results speak for themselves, as Georgia has logged 20 explosive passes in the last three games against Kentucky, Georgia and Florida.
Carson Beck gets credit for the yards, Ladd McConkey does all the work@GeorgiaFootball | #GoDawgspic.twitter.com/IsjUDBxXpc
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) October 28, 2023
Georgia's rushing attack has not shown a high level of success or explosives thus far in the season, but the passing attack continues to rise in the expected points category on a weekly basis.
Beck has a 9:1 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play rate on passes beyond 20 yards. Missouri transfer Dominic Lovett was an explosive slot target for the Tigers last season and has received 33% of his targets in the past two weeks.
While the offense has been recreated in the wake of Bowers' absence, the defense has been vulnerable in the front seven.
Georgia has the 100th-ranked strength of schedule, slipping up in terms of rush defense. Opposing offenses running man-blocking schemes with counter have been highly successful.
The Bulldogs tighten up in passing downs, ranking as the best overall defense on third downs. Georgia has allowed only two passes to exceed 40 yards this season.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Missouri and Georgia match up statistically:
Missouri Offense vs. Georgia Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 82 | 30 | |
| Line Yards | 104 | 18 | |
| Pass Success | 7 | 6 | |
| Havoc | 68 | 38 | |
| Finishing Drives | 24 | 68 | |
| Quality Drives | 50 | 6 |
Georgia Offense vs. Missouri Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 24 | 17 | |
| Line Yards | 49 | 19 | |
| Pass Success | 5 | 58 | |
| Havoc | 23 | 54 | |
| Finishing Drives | 13 | 99 | |
| Quality Drives | 3 | 69 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 59 | 28 |
| PFF Coverage | 76 | 5 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 93 | 13 |
| Middle 8 | 11 | 14 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.8 (66) | 28.5 (96) |
| Rush Rate | 53.2% (61) | 48.8% (85) |
Missouri vs Georgia
Betting Pick & Prediction
Teams that have been able to run the ball in man-blocking concepts have had success against Georgia's front seven. These rushing attempts have been low on Missouri's priority list, as less than 10% of its run concepts are counter, and those attempts have resulted in a middling Success Rate.
Missouri will look to utilize a highly successful passing attack straight into a Georgia defense that dares opponents to throw.
Georgia runs a heavy amount of quarters and Cover 3 — the two packages Missouri has the highest Success Rate and explosiveness against.
Cook has generated a big play on at least 20% of snaps against quarters and Cover 3 this season, giving the Tigers hope against the Georgia defense in Week 10.
While the Missouri passing attack is good-on-good against the Georgia secondary, Beck may have more advantages when attacking the Tigers' back seven.
Missouri's zone coverage is predominately Cover 1 and Cover 3, with a higher Success Rate in Cover 1. Well, Beck's biggest strengths are against Cover 1 and Cover 3.
Differing from Cook, Beck is expected to have a much bigger day in creating explosives and limiting the negative play.
The focus of the secondaries should also center around slot position, as this game will feature the two best offensive weapons in college football in former teammates Burden and Lovett.
Georgia will assign fifth-year senior Tykee Smith to Burden, hoping to limit the explosive target similar to last season.
The good news for Missouri is that Burden played a wideout role in last year's game before moving to the inside slot this season.
As for Lovett, the Tigers are expected to send Daylan Carnell after the former Missouri slot receiver. Carnell has been targeted 43 times this season, allowing 29 catches for an average of 8.2 yards per reception.
There's certainly an advantage for Georgia when it comes to explosive slot receivers who will be the difference-makers in this game.
Action Network projects Georgia as a -13.5 favorite with a total above the key number of 59.
With both offenses struggling to establish a rushing attack, Cook and Beck are expected to rack up plenty of passing yards. Both quarterbacks are excellent against the coverage packages presented by the opposing defenses.
While the power ratings indicate value on the Missouri point spread, the Bulldogs have yet to slow down on offense after losing Bowers.
Look to take an over on the right side of the biggest key number in totals at 55.
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