After a week that saw a lot of upsets, Week 7 has a few big games, highlighted by Oregon vs. Washington and USC vs. Notre Dame.
It should be a fun week, and there are a number of games in which I see early-week betting value.
The market clearly moves a lot over the course of the week. Money pours in from the time lines open on Sunday until kickoff on Saturday. Like any other sport, it's paramount to get the best price possible when betting on college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet. It happens every week.
But that mess could have been avoided if the bet was locked in at -6.5 on Sunday afternoon.
I'm here to help you navigate the market by providing a few lines I'm buying right now — or other lines that I'm waiting to buy later in the week.
The hope for this piece is to beat the market, get the best price possible, and in the long run, save you some money with closing line value. To do that, we'll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
You hear all the time, "Process over results." The best way to know if the process is working is by closing line value (CLV), meaning how many points did you beat the closing line by? Well, I'm here to help you hopefully get the most CLV possible early on in the week so you're sitting in a great position by the time we reach Saturday.
UTEP vs. FIU Odds
| UTEP Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -125 |
| FIU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +105 |
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UTEP vs. FIU Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| UTEP -0.5 | FIU -3.4 | FIU -4.2 |
Should the 1-5 Miners really be a road favorite here?
UTEP's offense really hasn't been that effective, averaging only 4.7 yards per play and ranking 101st in Success Rate. It has a pretty even distribution in its play-calling between the run and the pass, but it really isn't effective at doing either.
Quarterback Gavin Hardison is averaging 7.3 yards per attempt with five touchdown passes compared to seven interceptions. As strange as it is, his biggest problem has been throwing from a clean pocket. He's actually excellent under pressure, but he has a PFF passing grade of 71.8, an adjusted completion percentage of 69.8% and six turnover-worthy plays on his dropbacks with a clean pocket.
Plus, Hardison missed the Miners' last game against Louisiana Tech two weeks ago, and with this being a midweek matchup, it's unknown if he'll be able to give it a go. Hardison will test his arm Tuesday, but if he doesn't play, starting duties could go to fourth-stringer Cade McConnell with backup and third-stringer Jake McNamara and Kevin Hurley also questionable.
FIU's secondary has actually been pretty solid this season, ranking 42nd in Passing Success Rate Allowed, 40th in EPA/Pass Allowed and 61st in terms of a PFF coverage grade.
So, if UTEP isn't going to be able to throw the ball effectively, then it's going to have to rely on a rushing attack that's averaging just 3.4 yards per carry and ranks 99th in EPA/Rush.
The FIU offense has struggled quite a bit this season, but it's still broken off some big plays, especially in the running game. The Panthers are 24th in explosive rushing, and main back Shomari Lawrence is averaging 5.8 yards per carry with 18 forced missed tackles.
UTEP is allowing an absurdly high 5.6 yards per carry and ranks outside the top 100 in both Rushing Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Rush Allowed.
The Miners also rank 110th in Finishing Drives Allowed, so FIU has a decent chance to convert scoring opportunities into points.
All three projection models are showing value on the home Panthers, who have already gone from +6.5 at open to +2. I would grab that now before this game closes around a pick'em on Wednesday.
Georgia Southern vs. James Madison Odds
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| James Madison Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -178 |
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Georgia Southern vs. James Madison Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| James Madison -5.7 | James Madison -8.6 | James Madison -9.0 |
Georgia Southern's offense is flying high at the moment, but it's about to run into one of the best defenses in the Group of Five.
The Eagles are coming off of a bye, but the last time they were in action, they beat Coastal Carolina, 38-28.
Clay Helton's offense has scored more than 30 points in every game except for the one at Wisconsin. They Eagles are averaging 5.9 yards per play and rank top-20 in both Passing and Rushing Success Rate.
That's all fine and wonderful, but the Eagles have one big problem — they haven't taken advantage of their scoring opportunities.
Finishing Drives — how many points a team scores on drives that cross their opponent's 40-yard line — is the biggest statistical indicator as to whether or not teams cover the spread. Well, Georgia Southern averages only 4.0 points per scoring opportunity, good for 65th in FBS.
The reason James Madison is currently 5-0 is because of its defense. The Dukes allow just 5.1 yards per play while ranking sixth in Success Rate Allowed and 36th in EPA/Play Allowed.
They're pretty average against the pass but are one of the best teams in the country at stopping the run. They lead the nation in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and rank second in Defensive Line Yards and 11th in Stuff Rate.
That means there will be pressure on Georgia Southern quarterback Davis Brin, who has been excellent this season with an 87.3 PFF passing grade. However, he isn't taking many chances with the ball, as the Eagles sit 132nd in explosive passing while Brin averages just 6.9 yards per attempt.
James Madison's offense hasn't run the ball effectively, but it's been efficient in through the air. Quarterback Jordan McCloud is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt and has the Dukes inside the top 30 in both Passing Success Rate and EPA/Pass.
That's bad news for Georgia Southern, which really struggles to limit big plays in the passing game with a rank of 96th in explosive passing allowed 90th in terms of a PFF coverage grade.
All three projection models are showing value on the Dukes, so I would grab them at -3.5 before it moves.
Auburn vs. LSU Odds
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -115 | 62.5 -115o / -105u | +365 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -105 | 62.5 -115o / -105u | -490 |
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Auburn vs. LSU Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| LSU -10.3 | LSU -7.3 | LSU -8.2 |
One thing remains true for the LSU Tigers: They can't stop a nosebleed.
Missouri put up 527 yards against LSU this past Saturday and ran the ball for 5.5 yards per carry, which is nothing new considering LSU ranks 106th in Success Rate Allowed, 128th in EPA/Play Allowed and 124th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
Auburn has become a ground-heavy offense with Hugh Freeze at the helm, rushing the ball on 63% of offensive plays. It's been incredibly effective on the ground as well, sitting ninth in Rushing Success Rate and 31st in EPA/Rush.
After its terrible performance against Missouri's rushing attack, LSU now sits 111th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. Auburn should have a field day on the ground in Death Valley after running for 219 yards against Georgia in its last game.
LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels got banged up in the Missouri game but ended up finishing the game and put up some more incredible offensive numbers. Daniels is averaging 10.6 yards per attempt with a 91.8 PFF passing grade and has now thrown for almost 700 yards in his last two games.
But what makes him so good is his ability as a runner. Daniels ran for 130 yards against Missouri, and he's now averaging 5.6 yards per carry on the season.
LSU's rushing attack overall is one of the best in the nation, ranking inside the top five in both Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Rush. Texas A&M ran all over Auburn in Week 4, but the Tigers rebounded nicely and held Georgia to just 3.6 yards per carry in their last game.
The real strength of their defense, though, is in the secondary. Auburn is allowing just 6.9 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks and ranks inside the top 30 in both Passing Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Pass Allowed.
The key aspect of this game is going to come down to who finishes their scoring drives. LSU is one of the worst teams defensively in limiting scoring opportunities for their opponents, but the Tigers rank 11th offensively in Finishing Drives.
The Auburn defense sits 36th nationally in Finishing Drives Allowed, so it will come down to whether or not its offense can score in the red zone against LSU's poor defense.
With how bad LSU's defense is, the Tigers should probably not be laying double digits to any decent team.
All three models are showing value on Auburn, which has already moved from +13 at open to +11.5, so I would grab it +12 before it continues to move.
