NCAAF Odds, Picks for Boston College vs. Louisville

Let's head on down to Louisville, Kentucky, where the Louisville Cardinals will host the Boston College Eagles.

The Eagles gave Florida State a nice scare last week in their home defeat, which could have gone the other way if they didn't commit 18 penalties.

As for Louisville, things are off to a great start in the Jeff Brohm era, as the Cardinals will look to start the season 4-0. They narrowly escaped last week up against a miserable Indiana Hoosiers squad, so it'll be interesting to see how they respond.

Let's break down both of these teams and see what the best betting angle is for Boston College vs. Louisville.

QB Thomas Castellanos looked like the best player on the field at times during last week's nail-biter against the Seminoles.

The Eagles entered as massive underdogs, and there was supposedly a hurricane in the forecast. Turns out, the weather had no factor on the game whatsoever and Castellanos nearly eclipsed 400 total yards through the air and on the ground.

The Eagles will have their hands full this weekend once again, as this Louisville team enters this matchup as the No. 1 rushing success team in the nation. It doesn't get much better for the Eagles considering their defense ranks outside the top 90 in Rush Success, Line Yards, Havoc and Quality Drives.

I don't expect the Eagles to get many stops in this matchup, but I do have a feeling that Castellanos can keep them alive for most of the game. This is a completely different team with him under center, as they entered the season with Emmett Morehead as the starting QB.

The Eagles' offensive numbers are a bit deflated due to Morehead playing the majority of the snaps early on, but they still find themselves in the middle of the pack of most offensive categories. However, they are excellent in Havoc Allowed, coming in 32nd in the nation.

If this game was solely reliant on their offense, I'd say the Eagles could win this game outright. However, I don't trust this defense at all, especially against a red-hot Louisville offense.

I was high on this Cards team entering the season, but I didn't expect their offense to be this electric. Despite a close win last weekend, I think the Cards will be coming out firing — once again — in this matchup.

The aforementioned rushing attack has been superb — to say the least — and they've proven to be successful through the air as well. This is a team that ranks inside the top 40 in most offensive metrics, including Line Yards, Havoc Allowed, Finishing Drives and Passing Success Rate.

The BC defense will have its hands full all afternoon long, especially considering RB Jawhar Jordan is averaging almost 11 YPC this season. If you're into player props, a nice bonus pick for this game is his over rushing yards. The Eagles are 115th in Defensive Rush Success Rate.

QB Jack Plummer has had his moments this season, but this is a matchup that he can take advantage of a very weak BC secondary. It helps when WR Jamari Thrash continues to be explosive, finishing last week with 159 yards through the air despite only having four catches.

The Cards' defense could also be getting a boost with DB Jaden Minkins being questionable, but Brohm hasn't announced if he will be playing or not.

This secondary is definitely the weak spot of this unit, ranking 77th in Passing Success Rate.

Regardless, the Cards have been extremely solid in the trench thus far, entering this matchup seventh in the nation in Defensive Line Yards.

The Cards could very well catch the Eagles a bit sleepy after their emotional loss last weekend, so keep this in mind in the early moments of this matchup.

I believe Brohm's team will be fired up at home and will look to make a statement.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Boston College and Louisville match up statistically:

Boston College Offense vs. Louisville Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	65	43
Line Yards	66	7
Pass Success	117	71
Havoc	32	107
Finishing Drives	87	34
Quality Drives	59	20

Louisville Offense vs. Boston College Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	1	108
Line Yards	19	90
Pass Success	27	115
Havoc	19	132
Finishing Drives	40	88
Quality Drives	32	112

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	16	6
PFF Coverage	77	72
Special Teams SP+	47	34
Middle 8	133	101
Seconds per Play	24.4 (25)	26.3 (59)
Rush Rate	54.6% (44)	57.1% (28)

This is a pretty large number to lay, and normally, I'd say this is a good spot to back the Cards considering all of the circumstances.

BC could definitely be sleepwalking a bit to start, but I still have to gauge how good this offense is with Castellanos under center.

We will learn a lot about the Eagles from their effort in this matchup, and this could very well be a big overreaction by the market. I still don't trust their defense to back them in this spot, so the best play to me is the over.

I think both offenses are going to find success. Whether or not Castellanos plays like last week, I think the Eagles will find ways to put points up on the scoreboard.

I trust this Louisville offense at home, and better yet the total is still below a key number of 55. Let's get this home, and here's to hoping Castellanos is the real deal.