Utah State vs San Diego State Pick, Odds: Bet Saturday’s Underdog?

It's time to dive into the Utah State vs. San Diego State odds and make a pick for Saturday's Mountain West matchup.

There's only one head-to-head matchup between the top six power-rated teams in the Mountain West this weekend — Utah State vs. San Diego State. The Aggies began the season with zero returning production, a new head coach in Danny Sprinkle and a KenPom rating outside the top 100. Now, Utah State is 7-1 and alone at the top of the league standings.

For the second consecutive weekend, the Aggies are a solid road underdog against a more established conference power. Last weekend, Utah State went on the road and beat Boise State in overtime as a three-point underdog.

Given how little Utah State relies on perimeter offense and how often it gets to the free-throw line, the Aggies should be able to match up physically.

Utah State's offensive profile couldn't be more different this season than in years past. No longer are the Aggies a pace-and-space offense that shoots a ton of 3s. That version of Utah State lost twice to the more physical Aztecs, who dominated inside and outmuscled the Aggies.

This version of Utah State showed its quality against Boise State. The offense's ability to get to the free-throw line at an elite rate means they'll likely get plenty of cheap points against an extremely aggressive SDSU defense that commits a ton of fouls.

Utah State is also the best defensive rebounding team in the Mountain West, which is always a major key to slowing down an Aztecs offense that isn't great on the first shot, but relies on second chances and shot volume to overcome a lack of consistent shot making.

Even though they maintain an elite perimeter defense under Brian Dutcher, the Aztecs rim defense has taken a clear step back with the departure of Nathan Mensah. Utah State's offense runs almost entirely through the forwards, which means more success and potentially better efficiency at the rim for the Aggies.

San Diego State has had its struggles outside Viejas Arena in conference play with losses at Boise State, Colorado State and New Mexico. However, the Aztecs have been the class of the Mountain West because of their dominance at home, though that will be tested in the next three home games against Utah State, Colorado State and New Mexico. The Aztecs biggest issue since league play began has been their total inability to make 3s.

San Diego State has struggled from 3 all season, despite trying to take more. They've upped their 3-point attempt rate, but the percentage has dipped considerably. The Aztecs are making just 32% of their 3s, but that number dips to 29.5% in league play.

On the other side of the floor, the path to beating the Aztecs comes at the rim. SDSU is down to 106th in near proximity field goal percentage allowed. The past two seasons, SDSU was 14th and 12th in that metric.

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

In years past, the Aztecs would open -2.5 and get bet up to -3.5, which is where the market should be for this game. The college basketball market has wised up to these situational spots, and this is the third consecutive game in which the market is clearly shading against Utah State.

The Aggies ability to score at the rim and the line should travel better than most teams. They're average nationally in road performances, per Haslametrics, but this line shouldn't be higher than five. I'd bet the Aggies to keep this game close.

Pick: Utah State +5 or Better

ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.