Penn State vs. Indiana Odds & Betting Predictions - December 10, 2025

We sent this out at 13.5 yesterday and it has since moved to 14.5. If you didn’t grab it at 13.5, I would still play it for a unit at 14.5. This should be a blowout win for the Hoosiers despite dropping their last two games. The talent and coaching gap here is too much to ignore. Indiana comes into this matchup after back to back losses to Minnesota and Louisville, making this the perfect bounce back spot. It’s their Big Ten opener at Assembly Hall, and I expect their best effort. This Indiana team is a top 30 group nationally with one of the best defenses in the country. New head coach Darian DeVries is defensive minded, building his teams on effort, forcing turnovers, and dominating the glass. They’ve already shown they can beat quality opponents after handling Kansas State by 17 in November. This is a brand new team with a new coach, so it was always going to take a few games to find rhythm. However, after two straight losses, there’s no better time to back this squad. Indiana is also the oldest team in the country. They rank first in Division I experience and know better than anyone how to respond to adversity. The offense has been solid, but the defense remains elite ranking 15th in eFG% allowed and top 5 in 2P% allowed. That matters here because Penn State scores 54.3% of its points at the rim. Penn State sits 64th in offensive efficiency, but they’ve played nobody. Through nine games they’ve faced the 353rd ranked strength of schedule and the 357th ranked defensive SOS. They aren’t even a top 50 offense despite that cupcake slate. ShotQuality also isn’t impressed, ranking them 104th in offensive SQ. Now they finally face a real defense for the first time this season. Penn State is bad, even if their 8-1 record hides it. They fail both the eye test and the analytical test. They’re also extremely inexperienced, ranking 334th in D1 experience, and now they walk into one of the toughest venues in the country for their first true road game. I don’t expect it to go well. Indiana hasn’t played its best basketball, but they just faced two tough teams on the road. Now they get to reset at home, where they’re 6-0. Penn State’s defense is alarming considering they’re getting overwhelmed at the rim and on the boards despite playing one of the weakest schedules in the country. That won’t change here. Indiana is highly efficient at the rim and draws a Penn State defense ranked 263rd in 2P% allowed. Despite ranking 51st in offensive efficiency, ShotQuality grades Indiana’s offense as a top 25 unit. They should get whatever they want tonight. Give me Indiana to win big.

Favorite CBB Play of the Season so far. Analysis in Twitter/Tiktok video. Would play all the way to -16.5… Spot betting is king in CBB, this reeks of Hoosiers by run rule

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