UNC vs. NC State Odds & Betting Predictions - February 18, 2026

#RLM

Knuckle

This is a very interesting spot for a few reasons. First of all, this is a great bounce-back spot for NC State after dropping two straight games. They lost in blowout fashion to Louisville, then squandered a 7 point lead with a minute left to Miami. This is a good time to buy low on a team I am very high on. Secondly, North Carolina is devastated with injuries right now. Their best player, Caleb Wilson, is out with an arm injury, while their second best player, Henri Veesaar, is dealing with an illness and a lower leg injury. Wilson is confirmed to be out, while Veesaar will likely be a game-time decision. It is important to note he is dealing with two ailments at once, so even if he does suit up I assume Hubert Davis will be careful with his usage. UNC should be outmatched here. The Tar Heels survived in their first game without Wilson, but they were facing a disastrous Pitt team. I also think them winning in that spot was similar to an NBA team losing their star player. The team that doesn’t have their best player always seems to win the first game without them in the lineup. However, in the second game they tend to come back down to Earth. This is that exact spot. If Wilson and Veesaar are both out, this UNC lineup is very thin and will be without their top two scorers. This would be a gigantic talent mismatch, with UNC only having two players over a 4.0 BPR and the rest in the 2’s. Meanwhile, everyone in the NC State rotation is above a 3.0 BPR, and they have three guys above a 5.5 BPR. I have a feeling Veesaar plays, but if he doesn’t, NC State should run away with this one. North Carolina has also been miserable on the road. Sure, this is not a long road trip for the Heels, but it will be a tough environment. This is an in-state rivalry game, and I expect the Lenovo Center to be rocking. When I say UNC is miserable on the road, I’m not exaggerating. This team ranks 364th out of 366 Division I teams in Hasla Metrics away-from-home stat. EvanMiya gives NC State a 4.48 point home court advantage, while Hasla Metrics has it at 4.83 points. North Carolina is a perfect 15-0 at home this season, while just 3-4 on the road. Hubert Davis simply can’t get the same production from his team away from Chapel Hill. Also, UNC is getting beat by inferior talent, it’s not like their road schedule has been that brutal. On the road, they’ve lost to SMU by 14, Stanford by 5, California by 6, and Miami by 9. This NC State team is way better than any of those schools. I came into the season high on the Wolfpack and remain high on them despite back to back brutal losses. This is a very balanced team that has been lethal from deep. They own the 6th best three point percentage in the entire country and will get a very favorable matchup here. UNC already allows a ton of three pointers, but more importantly, they own the worst three point defense in the entire ACC. They are allowing teams to shoot 40% from deep in conference play. We’ve already seen them get exposed from deep multiple times this season. When they went on their road trip to California, Stanford poured in 15 threes on 57% shooting, while Cal made 14 threes on 53% shooting. This was all with a good perimeter defender in Caleb Wilson playing as well. The UNC defense in general has been a mess. Since January 1st, their defense is just 99th in defensive efficiency. NC State should get whatever they want offensively. The UNC offense is good, but again, we don’t know what this group will look like without Wilson and potentially Veesaar for an extended amount of time. All in all, I think we see a big time NC State bounce back win at home.