Canada enters the 2026 Winter Olympics men's hockey tournament as the betting favorite, with prediction markets on Kalshi pricing their gold medal chances at 46 cents (46% probability), while the United States trails at 35 cents (35% probability) in the market.
The market data reveals significant trading activity, with over 149,000 contracts traded on Canada's gold medal prospects and 155,000 contracts on the U.S. outcome. Sweden sits as the third-most likely winner at a 13% probability, while other hockey powers, like Finland, trail at just 7% odds.
If you also want to get in on the action, Kalshi offers trading on a variety of markets. Kalshi is offered in most states and allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, politics, and entertainment.
Who Will Win Gold in Men's Hockey?
Expert predictions from NHL.com align closely with market sentiment, as nine of 19 staff members picked Canada to win gold, while six selected the United States. This marks the first Olympic tournament featuring NHL players since 2014, when Canada captured consecutive golds in Vancouver (2010) and Sochi (2014).
Meanwhile, The Athletic's comprehensive preview noted how the NHL season has felt like "a preamble to the 2026 Winter Games," with 12 years between best-on-best Olympic competition building anticipation. Canada has won three Olympic golds with NHL participation, establishing itself as the tournament's most successful nation in the modern era.
The prediction markets suggest a two-horse race, with Canada and the U.S. combining for 81% of the total probability. The remaining field faces long odds, with traditional powers like Russia absent and European teams like Sweden (13%), Finland (7%), and others fighting for upset potential.
Tournament play begins Wednesday in Milan as the United States seeks its first Olympic gold since the 1980 "Miracle on Ice," while Canada aims to reclaim the throne after missing the 2018 PyeongChang Games due to NHL participation disputes.
What is Kalshi
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1-99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
