Warriors vs. Grizzlies Prediction, Picks for Friday, Feb. 2
Here's everything you need to know about Warriors vs. Grizzlies on Friday, Feb. 2 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
After yet another heartbreaking loss at the hands of a quality opponent, the Memphis Grizzlies will attempt to pick themselves up by the bootstraps and try for a much-needed win on the second night of a back-to-back against the Golden State Warriors.
Given the Warriors' run of form here and their poor record away from home, might there finally be a way in for the Grizzlies?
Let's get to our Warriors vs. Grizzlies prediction and pick.
Warriors vs. Grizzlies Prediction
Pick: Grizzlies +8 (-110)
Warriors Betting Outlook
The Warriors had hoped they'd see what this team was truly made of when Draymond Green finally returned from suspension, and so far it's been a mixed bag with a 2-3 record over the last five games. They've done well to nearly knock off the Kings and Lakers, but those moral victories haven't done much to buoy this team in the standings, sitting 13th in the Western Conference.
Golden State will now head off on a five-game road trip, something that's a rather daunting thought when you consider this team is just 7-11 on the road. The strange part about it is that Golden State's efficiency numbers are nearly identical on the road, and it has even shot over one point better from 3. So, perhaps there's hope yet for this fading dynasty.
The story to watch here will be that aforementioned 3-point line. The Grizzlies are taking the fourth-most shots from 3 in the NBA, and the Warriors enter with the 10th-best 3-point defense in the NBA according to Cleaning the Glass. While that's all well and good, Golden State has ranked just 26th against the 3 in the new year and against the Sixers and Kings in recent games allowed more than 43% of shots to fall from deep. Things were better against the Lakers, but that's one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA.
Grizzlies Betting Outlook
While the Grizzlies do love to shoot the 3, they're just 28th in the league in hit rate from outside. In a similar sort of trend as we've seen with the Warriors, however, Memphis is shooting it at 37.7% from deep since the start of January according to Cleaning the Glass, so perhaps there's some optimism here that it can negotiate a win at home.
The Grizzlies have now lost three in a row to some good teams in the Cavaliers, Kings and Pacers — and the margin of victory in all of those losses was an average of roughly seven points. This team is nearing a return to form, but injuries and fatigue will certainly be cause for concern here. On the second night of a back-to-back, we don't have a clear idea of who will suit up for this one but there's a decent chance that Luke Kennard, Ziaire Williams and Xavier Tillman could play.
Getting Kennard back would be a shot in the arm for a team ranked dead last in offensive production over the past 10 games, as could the Warriors' slumping defense. Still, getting points on the board will always be an issue for this team, and even with some inspired showings in recent games Memphis' defense has not been able to do enough to get across the finish line.
Warriors vs. Grizzlies Picks, Odds
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-8 -112 | 224.5 -112 / -108 | -325 |
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+8 -108 | 224.5 -112 / -108 | +260 |
This is an incredibly interesting matchup to me, considering the Warriors have been absolutely abysmal on the defensive end in recent weeks. The Grizzlies certainly are a hard team to trust offensively, but perhaps here — against a team that has struggled against the 3 in particular — things could begin to turn. The status of Kennard is somewhat important to me, and with his return looming I think Memphis could be worth a play here on the spread.
Memphis has done well to cover in half of its games where it's come in as the underdog when you consider it has covered in just 47.9% of games, while the Warriors are just 2-4 against the spread (ATS) as road favorites and 9-17 ATS in all games where they've laid points.
With neither team a true juggernaut for bettors, I think you take this big number on the Grizzlies — one which has been attainable in recent games even when short-staffed and up against quality opponents.
