Warriors vs. Clippers Prediction, Picks for Thursday, Dec. 14
Here's everything you need to know about Warriors vs. Clippers on Thursday, Dec. 14 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Golden State Warriors face the Clippers in L.A. Thursday night in their first game after it was announced by the league office that Draymond Green would be suspended indefinitely.
Meanwhile, the Clippers are finding their stride after a rough start to the James Harden era in Los Angeles that started with an 0-5 run. However, Paul George injured his groin in the second quarter of the Clippers 119-99 win over the Kings and didn't return. He's questionable against Golden State.
Let's get to our Warriors vs. Clippers prediction and pick.
Warriors vs. Clippers Prediction
Pick: Under 231.5 | Steph Curry Over 4.5 Rebounds
Warriors Betting Outlook
Green has made a name for himself in the NBA with defensive toughness and physicality, but the other edge of that sword is his aggressiveness on the court, which has led to 19 career ejections. His past indiscretions may have finally caught up to him as it’s very unclear when we’ll see Green take the court again. All we can do is handicap accordingly.
One surprising thing I found when researching this game is the sheer drop in defensive prowess from Green. You can see it with the eye test, but the advanced stats back it up too. He has a 1.8 Defensive Box Plus-Minus according to Basketball Reference, and that’s the lowest of his career since his rookie season.
The on/off numbers don’t speak to his defensive gravitas either. According to pbpstats, the Warriors defense is 7.7 points per 100 possessions in non-Green minutes this season. That’s not to say he’s a net negative, the DBPM number tells you he isn’t, but it’s still a significant drop. On average for his career, he’s worth 4.9 points towards the Defensive Rating and 5.6 towards the Offensive Rating, but that just isn’t the case this season.
One Warrior that should see extended play with Draymond out is Chris Paul. He sees a significant bump in usage without Green in the lineup and the extra spacing without the big man leads to higher quality shots for Paul who also sees his Effective Field Goal and True Shooting Percentage take a +23 and +15 percent leap respectively.
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Clippers Betting Outlook
The Clippers look like a different team compared to the beginning of the Harden trade. I mentioned their 0-5 start, but since then, they are tied for most wins in the league (10) with the Orlando Magic and the Clippers have only lost three games in that span. It should be noted that one of those losses was to the Warriors on Nov. 30 at Chase Center, however, the Clippers would get their revenge in the very next game in a 113-112 home win.
Despite the offensive firepower for L.A., their impressive play has been on the defensive end. Since their losing streak, the Clippers are fourth in Net Rating (+7.4) with league-average offense (116.5), but the fourth-best defense (109) behind only the Rockets, Timberwolves and Lakers.
However, the offense has come around more recently (119.6 Offensive Rating) thanks to Kawhi Leonard and Harden’s improved shooting and better chemistry between Harden and the Clipper big men, Ivica Zubac and Daniel Theis. Theis in particular sees a spike in At-Rim FG% (+5%) and eFG% (+6%) in minutes with Harden.
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Warriors vs. Clippers Picks, Odds
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 230 -110 / -110 | +180 |
| Clippers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 230 -110 / -110 | -220 |
I like the under here and I’ll take a few player props as well. At 231.5, we’re getting an extra point on the total from where this closed in the two previous games this season. The first matchup went over, but it took a 71-point fourth quarter to go over by 3.5 points. Even up until the end there were unnecessary fouls that sent Clippers players to the line in a game that was already over.
The next game, a few days later, went under by 5.5 points. I think we’re seeing a bit of an inflated line based on Green’s perceived elite defense, but his effect isn’t what it used to be at this stage in his career. The Clippers on the other hand, are playing great defense, especially at home (9.4 points per 100 possession improvement compared to on the road), and they’re 22nd in pace since acquiring Harden.
George is obviously a big part of the Clipper defense, but his offense is much more impactful. If he's ruled out, I'll like the under even more because of what he means to their ability to execute in the half-court.
If this does go under, that likely means more missed shots, which means more rebounding opportunities and a surprising benefactor could be none other than Steph Curry whose rebounds line is at 4.5. He’s averaging 5.5 per game in his last 10 games and he’s over this number in 67% of his games this season and seven of his last 10 without Green in the lineup.
With Green out, we’ll likely get the Chris Paul in the starting lineup but even if he’s off the bench, we’ll see a minutes bump and I’ll look to his points or assists prop or some combination of the two depending on which lines we get. Follow in the Action App @AOWatts13 to see how I end up playing Point God props.
Pick: Under 231.5 (Play to 230.5) | Steph Curry Over 4.5 Rebounds
