Timberwolves vs. Magic Prediction, Picks for Tuesday, Jan. 9
Here's everything you need to know about Timberwolves vs. Magic on Tuesday, Jan. 9 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Timberwolves and Magic have both looked exceptional on defense this season, and less so on the other end of the floor. In a matchup between two similar teams, is there an edge to be found on either side? Does the total come into play?
Let's get to our Timberwolves vs. Magic prediction and pick.
Timberwolves vs. Magic Prediction
Pick: Magic +5.5 (-110)
Timberwolves Betting Outlook
Minnesota has leaned on strong front-court play all season to run out to a 25-11 record. The Timberwolves rank sixth in field goal defense within four feet of the rim, allowing just 63.2% shooting in that area, according to Cleaning the Glass. While their success has been fleeting on offense, the Timberwolves have remained committed to scoring inside, ranking among the top teams in shot frequency within four feet.
That's not to say the Timberwolves can't play on the perimeter — they're third in 3-point shooting and top-five against the 3 — they just prefer to do their work inside. It also helps that they're 10th in rebounding rate, which further solidifies their edge in the front-court over most opponents.
However, the Timberwolves come into this game having lost three of their past four.
Magic Betting Outlook
The Magic have lost three of five, but things seem to be turning around with back-to-back wins over the Nuggets and Hawks. Despite some injuries to Franz Wagner, Gary Harris and Jonathan Isaac, Orlando has managed to find great contributions from guys like Caleb Houstan off the bench and established players like Paolo Banchero.
This offense still has a ways to go before it can consider itself anywhere close to dangerous, but the good news is that they're close to the league average over the past five games. Orlando will lean on its front-court to win games as it shoots 3s at the second-lowest frequency in the NBA. On the flip side, it ranks first in shot frequency within four feet of the rim, though it's knocked down a very pedestrian 66.7% of looks in that area.
On defense, the Magic are almost as complete as their opponents on Tuesday, sitting in the top 11 of the league in defending the rim and the 3-point line. Some of that prowess is lost without key guys like Wagner, Harris and Isaac, but if it was good enough to solve the Nuggets, it can be good enough to stop the Timberwolves.
Timberwolves vs. Magic Picks, Odds
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5.5 | 217 -110/-110 | -205 |
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5.5 | 217 -110/-110 | +170 |
The Magic haven't shot the ball from outside all that differently at home versus on the road, but offensively they've been around six points better per 100 possessions in home games. On the flip side, the Timberwolves have been roughly two points better on the road, scoring 114.6 points per 100 possessions. They've been a somewhat reliable team to back as a road favorite, though the real trend here is the fact that the Magic are 6-1 against the spread as home underdogs this season.
Orlando's defense is every bit as good as Minnesota's, and it has looked inspired in recent games with some monumental performances against tough offenses. It also seems to run a lot more efficiently at home, and while it's hard to poke a hole in the Timberwolves' defense, we can at least look to the fact that they've allowed shots at the rim at the third-highest rate in the league as some sort of consolation. Teams are still viewing the rim as the easiest place to score against Minnesota, and with Orlando's prowess down there, it should be able to match Minnesota with every step.
