Kings vs. Timberwolves Picks, Prediction Tonight
Here's everything you need to know about Kings vs. Timberwolves tonight, including our expert prediction and betting picks.
The Minnesota Timberwolves travel to Sacramento to face the Kings on Saturday. These teams played in Minnesota in late November and the Kings won that game handily 124-111, giving the Timberwolves one of only six losses this season and their only loss at home.
Karl-Anthony Towns exited Thursday’s win over the Lakers in the fourth quarter with a knee injury and won’t play against the Kings.
Let's get to our Timberwolves vs. Kings prediction and pick.
Kings vs. Timberwolves Prediction
Pick: Timberwolves +2.5 | Anthony Edwards Over 26.5 Points
Timberwolves Betting Outlook
The Timberwolves have been a wagon at home this season — by far the most dominant home team of the 2023-24 season. Minnesota is 12-1 straight up and 8-4-1 against the spread. The road has been a different story for the Timberwolves, who have a losing spread record (6-8) but are 9-5 straight up.
The Timberwolves have been an excellent team all-around. They boast the best schedule-adjusted defense in the league, per Dunks and Threes, and they’ve made their bones on that end of the floor, but their offense has elite elements as well. Their shot profile isn’t the strongest — Minnesota doesn’t shoot many threes — but they take high-quality shots, ranking third in 3-point percentage per Cleaning the Glass (39.2%).
Minnesota also makes a concerted effort to draw fouls and get to the line by getting into that short mid-range area. They rank ninth in Free Throw Rate (21.9), leading to the seventh-best Effective Field Goal Percentage (56.2%).
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Kings Betting Outlook
The Kings are the opposite in a few ways. They’re a faster team that focuses much more on the offensive end, but can still play defense in a pinch. They rank just 22nd on the season, but that’s a far cry better than last year’s Defensive Rating. They get right back to pressuring defenses after letting up baskets on the other end.
A big part of Sacramento’s struggles defensively stem from its lack of personnel. The Kings' only regular rotation player that’s a plus-defender is the lengthy Keegan Murray, who will likely get the Anthony Edwards assignment. The Timberwolves will be without Towns, but they’ll still have the personnel offensively to make the Kings pay on the defensive end.
Sacramento’s defense has one of the worst Free Throw Rates. As I mentioned earlier, that’s an area where the Timberwolves excel offensively, and it’s Edwards who’s doing most of the damage in that category. The Kings will need to stay disciplined on defense in order to hang with Minnesota.
Kings vs. Timberwolves Picks, Odds
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 233.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 233.5 -110o / -110u | -148 |
Despite Towns missing the game, I like the Timberwolves in this spot with the Kings on a back-to-back. The Timberwolves defense won’t be effected by Towns' absence, but their offense can still exploit the Kings defensive weaknesses because of Edwards’ play style, and I like him to have a big game. He had a monster 35-point performance in their first meeting this year and he’s cleared his points prop line in four straight.
I also like the motivation of Minnesota coming off a close win against a Lakers team without LeBron James, and a disappointing loss to the 76ers before that. The cherry on top is the added motivation from losing their only home game to Sacramento earlier this season. I like Minnesota at any 'dog price, and I’ll take Edwards’ points over up to 27.5.
