Timberwolves vs. Celtics Prediction, Picks for Wednesday, Jan. 10
Here's everything you need to know about Timberwolves vs. Celtics on Wednesday, Jan. 10 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Minnesota Timberwolves head to Boston to take on the Celtics in what should be a thrilling game. The Wolves and the Celtics are both the top seeds in their respective conferences, and this game will be tightly contested.
Let's get to our Timberwolves vs. Celtics prediction and pick.
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Prediction
Pick: Celtics -6
Timberwolves Betting Outlook
The Timberwolves are in a tough schedule spot as they close out an Eastern Conference road trip in Boston, MA on the second night of a back-to-back. They are traveling from Orlando, FL after beating the Magic 113-92.
The Wolves have been elite. They have the best record in the West with the fifth-best Adjusted Net Rating (+5.3) and the best Adjusted Defensive Rating (109.6), per Dunks and Threes. Minnesota has done this with a relatively poor offense despite having offensive weapons in Anthony Edwards and Karl Anthony-Towns.
Minnesota's clear strength is its defense, and it has even held up against the league's best teams. Against top-10 teams in Point Differential, the Wolves have maintained the league's best defense to go along with an 8-5 record, per Cleaning the Glass.
The Timberwolves limit opponents from beyond the arc and at the rim, and force them into midrange jumpers — typically low-value shots. Couple this with elite defense, and the Wolves are a tough team to attack.
One matchup I'm eying is Rudy Gobert against Kristaps Porzingis. Gobert has scored well against Porzingis — 18.9 ppg and 13.2 rpg — and his median outcome in 12 games is 17 points and 14 rebounds. Gobert's props have not been posted at the time of writing, but I'll likely target a points or points + rebounds line.
Celtics Betting Outlook
The Boston Celtics have been dynamic on both sides of the floor this season with the best Adjusted Net Rating (+10.1), the best Adjusted Offense and the second-best Adjusted Defense, per Dunks and Threes. The Celtics have been careful with some of their stars on back-to-backs; even though they have a rest advantage here, the Celtics are scheduled to play again tomorrow against the Milwaukee Bucks.
We will need to keep an eye on the injury report considering Al Horford (illness), Jrue Holiday (elbow), and Kristaps Porzingis (knee) are all listed as Questionable for this game. While they played in Boston's most recent game, their presence is critical for Boston's success.
Editor's note: Horford and Holiday will play, while Porzingis has been ruled out as of 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
Boston has so many ways to attack opponents on both offense and defense with their personnel. However, on the offensive side of the ball they have blitzed teams with their proficiency from deep. The Celtics take the highest frequency of 3s while shooting 38.6% (6th-best) from long range, per Cleaning the Glass.
When these teams played on Nov. 6, the Timberwolves won 114-109 in overtime. The biggest swing was that they limited the Celtics to 28.2% shooting from distance. That was their fourth-worst 3-point percentage in any game and their second-lowest output for made 3s overall (11).
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Timberwolves vs. Celtics Picks, Odds
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 224 -110 / -110 | +350 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 224 -110 / -110 | -450 |
When I first looked at this game and saw Minnesota +6 it seemed like a spot to jump on the Wolves as a road dog, but the more I dug in to some of the trends the more they all point to Boston.
The Wolves are 0-2 ATS on no rest and 0-3-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage. Boston is 12-1 Straight up and 7-5-1 ATS with a Rest Advantage. Minnesota is just 2-5 ATS as a road dog while Boston is 11-6 ATS as a home favorite. It's a bad schedule spot for the Wolves while Boston is well-rested.
I expect Boston to come together for this game and defend home court.
Pick: Celtics -6
