Suns vs. Warriors Prediction, Picks Tonight
Here's everything you need to know about Suns vs. Warriors on Saturday, Feb. 10 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Suns will travel to Chase Center to take on the Warriors in a star-studded matchup. Both these teams are trending up as of late so this should be an exciting matchup. Let’s break down where there might be some value.
Let's get to our Suns vs. Warriors prediction and pick.
Suns vs. Warriors Prediction
Pick: Over 239.5
Suns Betting Outlook
The last time these two teams played was the infamous Draymond Green/Jusuf Nurkic punching incident that caused Green to be suspended indefinitely. Everyone was slandering Green and calling for him to retire for his antics but now he has returned and been the major reason the Warriors are back in playoff contention and not blowing up their entire roster at the deadline.
In the 10 games since his return the Warriors are +124 in 291 minutes with him on the court. They have an unreal net-rating of +19.4, with an offensive rating of 126.6 and a defensive rating of 107.2 when he has been on the floor. The Warriors have won five of their last six games, including taking four games in their most recent five game road trip. They’ve gone 5-1 ATS during this stretch so the market clearly hasn’t adjusted to how improved they’ve been yet.
Now they are getting Gary Payton II back, a man who has quietly been one of their most impactful players. The team is an insane 11.5 points better with him on the court per 100 possessions. Payton II isn’t just a fun bench player, he is an elite defender and rebounder who can guard 1-4 and he enables them to avoid extra minutes for Moses Moody, Dario Saric and Lester Quinones. Everything seems to be coalescing at the perfect time for the Warriors and I believe they continue to be underrated by the market.
Warriors Betting Outlook
Both these teams have been trending up after slow starts to their season as the Suns continue to dominate with their offense and they’ve also won five of their last six games. The story for the Suns continues to be their historically elite offense, as their current starting five has an unreal offensive rating of 130.0 across a large sample size of 716 possessions. The Suns made moves to improve their bench at the deadline, adding David Roddy and Royce O’Neale to their roster. These two are meaningful additions to what was arguably the worst bench in the NBA this season.
Suns vs. Warriors Picks, Odds
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2 -108 | 241 -114 / -106 | -130 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2 -112 | 241 -114 / -106 | +110 |
I’d expect there to be lots of points in this one. The Suns will not have an answer for Stephen Curry here and he should torture Jusuf Nurkic in drop coverage all night. The Suns have zero viable defenders to matchup with him unless they want to play Josh Okogie for 48 minutes. Additionally, the Suns have played the easiest schedule of opposing offenses while the Warriors' offense has played the second-most difficult schedule of opposing defenses.
This Suns defense might be worse than the raw data indicate and the Warriors' offense is likely underrated. On the flip side of the ball, this is starting to look like an unstoppable offense and Booker and Beal should have plenty of space with Curry and Klay Thompson guarding them. The emergence of Grayson Allen as a borderline fourth star and playmaker (14 assists to 0 turnovers last game) has made this Suns offense unguardable.
The Warriors will have issues here and I don’t expect Payton II to play meaningful minutes in his first game back. The Warriors have also ramped up their pace massively since Green returned to the lineup so there should be plenty of possessions in this one. Bet the over 239.5 here given the edges for both offenses. I think this should be closer to 245.
