Suns vs. Jazz Prediction, Picks for Friday, Nov. 17
Here's everything you need to know about Suns vs. Jazz on Friday, Nov. 17 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Suns will travel to face the Utah Jazz on Friday night and may finally have their big three — Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant — all available.
Let's get right to our Suns vs. Jazz prediction and pick.
Suns vs. Jazz Prediction
Booker’s return reignited this offense as the Suns posted an offensive rating of 150.0 (100th percentile) and a 70.6% effective field goal percentage (100th percentile) in Wednesday's win over the Timberwolves.
The Suns have had an offensive rating of 112.7 with Booker off the floor, compared to a 125.3 rating when he was on the court. That offensive rating swing of +12.5 ranks near the top of the league, but his defensive rating swing of +13.8 places him near the bottom of the league. These are dramatic swings that are important to keep in mind when analyzing the Suns and their totals.
We have yet to see Beal, Booker and Durant on the floor together, but it's easy to guess that they'd often be playing to the over with those three getting the majority of the minutes.
The Suns aren’t going to boast a great defense as they lack reliable perimeter defenders outside of Josh Okogie. They’ve allocated the majority of their minutes to Jusuf Nurkic, Grayson Allen and Eric Gordon, and none of those guys are good defenders at this point in their careers. The Suns may have success offensively, but their defense should struggle against a rested Jazz team.
Utah has a two-day rest advantage and I expect the Jazz to push the pace as the Suns rank 18th in transition defensive rating. Utah is looking to play fast as it ranks eighth in pace.
The Jazz will likely lean into that more with Kelly Olynyk replacing many of Walker Kessler’s minutes. I think we could see Olynyk do a great job pulling Nurkic away from the rim, which should help Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton get into the paint.
Phoenix’s defensive numbers look good on paper, but the Suns haven’t played many potent opponents as they rank 28th in strength of schedule and have played the fourth-easiest schedule of opposing offenses, according to dunksandthrees.com.
Utah’s offense should benefit form playing the Suns as Phoenix doesn't exert a lot of ball pressure and ranks just 25th in turnover rate (13.2%). Utah's offense has struggled to take care of the ball and ranks last in turnover rate (17.7%), but that shouldn't be an issue here.
When these teams matched up earlier this season, the Jazz had a great shot profile and attempted 82% of their shots either at the rim or from 3. They struggled to shoot well on those shots, but I think Utah is due for positive regression as it ranks sixth in location effective field goal percentage, but 16th in actual EFG%. This team is generating good looks and I expect the offense to become more efficient here with Sexton, Simone Fontecchio and Olynyk receiving more minutes in Kessler’s absence.
Suns vs Jazz Picks, Odds
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 237.5 -110 / -110 | -210 |
| Jazz Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 237.5 -110 / -110 | +176 |
I’ll be taking the Jazz team total over here as I think this Sun defense will be awful without Booker, Durant, Allen, Nurkic, and Beal getting the majority of minutes here for the Suns. I already liked the Jazz offensive shot profile and now that they are giving consistent minutes to Colin Sexton, Keyonte George, and Kelly Olynyk I expect their efficiency to increase even more. The Jazz team total is currently around 115.5 but I like this up to 116.5 here.
Pick: Jazz Team Total Over 115.5 (-110)
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