Suns vs. Jazz Prediction, Picks for Sunday, Nov. 19
Here's everything you need to know about Suns-Jazz with our Suns vs Jazz prediction and pick for the best bet Sunday night.
The Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz squared off Friday night in the NBA in-season tournament, and now they face off again in the same setting, but as a normal regular-season game on Sunday night.
The Suns have won two straight since Devin Booker returned to the lineup, while the Jazz had a two-game winning streak of their own snapped with the home loss to the Jazz on Friday.
Friday's game was tight, with the Suns winning but the Jazz covering. However, that game was highlighted by 38 points from Kevin Durant and 37 from Jordan Clarkson — one of which seems much less sustainable.
The game also contained a notable pair of player props that hit and look to be great plays again on Sunday.
Let's get to our Suns vs. Jazz prediction and picks.
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Suns vs. Jazz Prediction
Phoenix Suns
In the two games since Booker has been back, the Suns offense is clicking at a WILD rate, with an offensive rating of 139.7. A two-game sample is obviously miniscule, but it's definitely notable that one of those games came against the top defense in the league. Phoenix dropped 133 on the Wolves, the highest Minnesota has allowed all year and 26 points above its season average.
The pattern has also held over the entire season with Booker on the court, with the team scoring 129.3 points per 100 possessions with the shooting guard on the court, compared to 112.4 with him off of it.
Booker has also relished his role of all-around offensive creator with Bradley Beal yet to debut in Phoenix, as he has averaged 27.5 points and 10.0 assists in fewer than 30 minutes a game so far this season. He's averaging more than 14 potential assists, and that's even with one game of the four on a minutes limit. After KD arrived in Phoenix last season, Booker averaged seven assists a game, with that getting even higher in games Chris Paul wasn't there.
With single-game totals of 15 and 13 already this season, he has shown the ceiling is there for this prop, making it an excellent candidate for an escalator or ladder play.
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Utah Jazz
On the other side of things, the Jazz are nearly healthy, with only Walker Kessler missing from the rotation. However, Kessler is a notable player in a few ways. He's Utah's best rim protector, as well as one of the team's best rebounders. The Jazz collect 4% less of the potential defensive rebounds, while teams shoot2% better at the rim with him off the court, per pbpstats.com.
This is great news for the Suns, who managed to win on Friday despite Clarkson going for 37. While I don't see Clarkson going for 37 again, he has — despite the lack of positional overlap — seen his minutes (by four) and field goal attempts (by eight!) skyrocket since Kessler went down to injury.
Clarkson is a streaky player, in terms of how well he scores and his usage and field goal attempts. When he's on a run, he gets up shots as fast as any player in the league. As such, I'll be looking toward his points and threes props.
The other prop I like for Utah without Kessler is John Collins' rebounds. In the four games since Kessler went out, Collins has 9, 3, 10 and 14 boards. He is the main beneficiary of Kessler's potential rebounds, with his defensive rebound rate jumping from 15.3% to 20.7%, per pbpstats.com.
Suns vs. Jazz Picks, Odds
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 239.5 -110 / -110 | -194 |
| Jazz Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 239.5 -110 / -110 | +162 |
Put it all together, and we have a boatload of plays.
The Suns offense looks great right now and easily cleared the team total each game since Booker returned. The Jazz defense is second-worst in the league overall, and the downright worst when adjusted for strength of schedule. As such, I'll take Suns over 120.5.
From the player prop side of things, Booker assists, Collins rebounds and Clarkson points were all talked through already. I would take Booker assists to over 8.5 even money, Collins rebounds over 9.5 to -115, and Clarkson points to over 23.5 -105.
Let's also have some fun. Let's throw in a little Sunday Funday parlay ticket!
Pick: Suns over 120.5 points
Player props: Booker over 8.5 assists (+100), Collins over 9.5 rebounds (-115), over 23.5 points (-105)
Parlay: Phoenix over 121.5, Booker 8+ assists, Clarkson 25+ points, Collins 12+ rebounds (+2500 at DraftKings)
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