Suns vs. Heat Prediction, Picks | Best Bet for Monday
Here's everything you need to know about Suns vs. Heat on Monday, Jan. 29 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
After seeing their seven-game winning streak end, it feels like the Suns have suddenly forgotten how to close out the opposition when it matters most. On Friday, Phoenix blew an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter to lose to the Pacers 133-131.
In the next game against Orlando, Phoenix entered the fourth quarter again with a lead (85-82) but managed only 13 points in the final 12 minutes of play. The Suns will now head to Miami to face the Heat in the second leg of a back-to-back. This will also be the Suns' third game in four nights, so the scheduling spot won't be in their favor.
As for Miami, the Heat will have one day of rest coming into this game following Saturday's loss to the Knicks. The Heat have lost six straight games, but they likely won't find a better opportunity to get back in the win column.
Let's get to our Suns vs. Heat prediction and pick.
Suns vs. Heat Prediction
Pick: Heat -3.5 (-110)
Suns Betting Outlook
"Everything was all good just a week ago." That must be what Suns fans are thinking if they can recall the lyrics Jay-Z popularized on his first single, "Dead Presidents,"almost three decades ago.
The rapper-turned-mogul titled his debut album "Reasonable Doubt," which might explain how we should view Phoenix's chances to legitimately contend for an NBA title.
I get it. You probably think I'm being a prisoner of the moment, given the back-to-back losses by the Suns. However, after digging into the numbers, Phoenix's fourth quarter performances in its last two games might not be just a blip on the radar.
According to NBA.com, the Suns are averaging the fewest fourth quarter points in the league (24.5 per game).
If we look at their fourth quarter efficiency metrics, which help to normalize performance, the Suns rank last in offensive rating (103.4) and 26th in defensive rating (119.1).
Thus, the Suns' -15.7 net rating in the fourth quarter is the worst in the league by almost four points.
In the other three quarters of the game, the Suns have a positive net rating, which makes me wonder whether they're getting worn down due to fatigue in the final 12 minutes. It's also worth noting that the Suns' starters average the fifth-most minutes per game (31.9) in the league.
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Heat Betting Outlook
As much as I'd like to embark on a full analytical breakdown of Miami, I've learned that its underlying metrics rarely portray a complete picture. How else could we justify a team that went from a play-in game to the NBA Finals a year ago?
Miami is back in that familiar territory where the numbers never seem to make sense. For example, Miami is the only team in the Eastern Conference with a winning record (24-22) and a negative net rating (-1.0).
Moreover, according to ESPN's Relative Percent Index, Miami's record should be closer to 21-25 when considering its Pythagorean Win Expectation. However, I still expect this Heat team to become good once the postseason gets underway.
Miami recently added Terry Rozier via trade to strengthen its backcourt. Thus, Rozier might need a little more time to fully acclimate with his new teammates despite featuring in each of Miami's last three losses.
Nonetheless, this is a Heat team that opponents know can still be dangerous, especially given its deep playoff run last season as an eighth seed.
Suns vs. Heat Picks, Odds
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 230 -112o / -108u | +120 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 230 -112o / -108u | -142 |
If there's ever a time for Miami to snap this losing streak, I think this is the opportunity. The Suns are in a difficult back-to-back spot while facing the dreaded three games in four nights.
Based on that scheduling scenario, our Action Labs database shows the Suns are just 41-58-1 (41.4%) against the spread (ATS) as a road underdog in this spot.
But the stat that really jumps out is how teams perform when carrying a six-game losing streak.
Teams looking to avoid a seventh consecutive loss are 316-252-8 ATS for +45.69 units.
This is the most profitable spot in our database for betting on a winning or losing streak. I think the stars align here for the Heat against a Suns team that will likely be somewhat weary on short rest.
Lay the -3.5 points with Miami at FanDuel to win by margin and finally snap its losing streak.
Pick: Heat -3.5 (-110)
