Raptors vs. Lakers Prediction, Picks for Tuesday, Jan. 9
Here's everything you need to know about Raptors vs. Lakers on Tuesday, Jan. 9 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
After a 2- 1 start to a six-game road trip, the Toronto Raptors head to Los Angeles to take on the Lakers Tuesday night. Toronto is 15-21 on the year and one game out of the final playoff play-in game.
Over the past few seasons, the Raptors shunned the notion that they were in a rebuilding mode or desperately in need of one. Last February, Toronto resisted overtures from other teams looking to trade for Fred VanVleet, with the eight-year pro almost destined for free agency.
VanVleet did have a one-year player option, but that was likely moot after the Wichita State product reportedly declined a four-year, $114 million extension in 2022. As expected, VanVleet declined his player option, became a free agent and signed with the Rockets on a three-year deal worth $130 million.
While VanVleet walked away with a bag, the Raptors got nothing but a lump of coal for their troubles.
With Toronto president Masai Ujiri desperate not to make the same mistake again with OG Anunoby approaching free agency, the Raptors traded the forward along with Precious Achiuwa and guard Malachi Flynn to the Knicks in exchange for RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and a 2024 second-round pick.
In this preview, I'll share one angle bettors should watch for regarding this new-look Raptors team.
Let's get to our Raptors vs. Lakers prediction and pick.
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Raptors vs. Lakers Prediction
Pick: Raptors Team Total Over 114.5 (-120)
Raptors Betting Outlook
Toronto appears to be in a transition phase, and it's up to Ujiri to design a plan to move the team forward. The Raptors need to be honest with themselves and their fanbase about how long this project will take.
Thus, given the uncertainty, I think it would be wrong for the fans to have any real expectations of where their team is heading. Raptors players would also know their team is currently in flux.
However, it's entirely possible that without expectations, the Raptors can play somewhat freely on the court.
Toronto clearly has some ballers, as Pascal Siakam leads the team with 22.1 points per game. The addition of Barrett gives the Raptors a third player alongside Scottie Barnes (20.5 points per game) who can average 20-plus points.
Barrett, who averaged 20.0 and 19.6 in each of his previous two seasons with the Knicks, is putting up 18.6 points this season. In four games with the Raptors, he's averaging 21.0 points, including a 37-point outburst on Sunday against the Warriors.
As for Quickley, he averaged 15 points for the Knicks while coming off the bench. In Toronto, the Raptors are using Quickley as a starter. His minutes have gone up from 24 to 31, while his scoring is up to 17.3 points per game with the Raptors.
Since their arrival, the Raptors are 3-1, averaging 125.75 points per game.
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Lakers Betting Outlook
The Lakers' got a much-needed victory over the Clippers on Sunday to snap a four-game losing streak. Now the question is whether they can put up back-to-back solid performances.
At 18-19, Los Angeles is currently the 10th seed in the Western Conference. It is ironic that LeBron James initially scoffed at the idea of a play-in tournament, but as it turns out, it might be his only route to the postseason for a second straight year.
I've felt that the Lakers' success in winning the title during the bubble has given them a false sense of security, almost like they can flip the switch at a beck and call. But the reality is you can't just throw your sneakers onto the court and expect to win.
If you assess the Lakers using their Pythagorean Wins Expectation, you might conclude that they haven't turned the corner just yet. The Lakers' record should be closer to 17-21, per ESPN's Relative Percent Index.
Thus, it's possible that some regression still looms in their future. As a result, I'm not entirely sold on their prospects of turning things around.
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Raptors vs. Lakers Picks, Odds
| Raptors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 235 -112 / -108 | +170 |
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 235 -112 / -108 | -205 |
While the Lakers' offense ranks in the bottom third of the league, their defense has been their bright spot. Per TeamRankings, Los Angeles ranks 10th in efficiency, allowing 109.8 points per 100 possessions.
Los Angeles will need its "A" game on defense against a Raptors team that likes to get up and down the court. Toronto leads the league in fastbreak points with 17.9 per game, whereas the Lakers rank 25th in fastbreak points allowed with 15.5 per game.
Since Barrett and Quickley debuted in Toronto, the Raptors are doing everything faster. Their fastbreak points are up to 20.5, and their pace is up from 99.41 on the season to 101.88 during this four-game stretch.
More importantly, their effective field goal rate, which adjusts for a three-point field goal being worth more than a two-point field goal, is up from 54.5% to 59.6%.
This Raptors' offense is clicking at the moment and playing free-flowing basketball.
As a result, I think it makes sense to consider a play on the Raptors team total, which is available at 114.5 (-120) at BetRivers. The Raptors' team total is 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games and 5-0 to the over in their previous five.
Pick: Raptors Team Total Over 114.5 (-120)
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