Raptors vs. Kings Prediction, Picks | Best Bet for Friday
Here's everything you need to know about Raptors vs. Kings on Friday, Jan. 5 — our expert prediction and betting picks for tonight.
The Raptors have been a team in flux. After trading away their cornerstone 3-and-D wing, O.G. Anunoby, they promptly lost to the Pistons, ending Detroit's historic 28-game losing streak. Toronto got back RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley in the trade, and since their debut, the Raptors have gone 2-0 with wins and covers against the Cavaliers and Grizzlies. They face the Kings on Friday night in the second of a hefty six-game west coast road trip.
On the other side of the matchup, the Kings are coming off their third game in four nights after going to overtime against the Magic on Wednesday. While not the most ideal scheduling spot for the Kings, all three nights will be at home and they play one more game in Sacramento before a five-game road trip of their own beginning Tuesday.
Let's get to our Raptors vs. Kings prediction and pick.
Raptors vs. Kings Prediction
Pick: RJ Barrett over 4.5 rebounds | Kings 2Q
Raptors Betting Outlook
The Raptors have bounced back since their embarrassing loss to the Pistons, and their new-look roster seems to be working thus far. Quickley was coming off the bench in New York, but has found himself a spot as the lead guard in Toronto. He and Barrett are starting in place of Anunoby and the recently promoted starter Gary Trent Jr., who has moved back to the bench with Dennis Schroeder, whom he had initially replaced.
The move has provided the Raptors with some scoring off the bench and allowed them to utilize smaller lineups with the departure of Precious Achiuwa. It’s obviously a minuscule two-game sample size, but Quickley has continued to put in valuable minutes in Toronto and it’s showing up in his on/off splits. In his two games as a Raptor, Quickley has elevated his Efficiency Differential from a top-level +11.0 to All-Star level +17.4, according to Cleaning the Glass. While I don’t expect him to maintain that same level of production for the rest of the season, it’s clear he’s fitting in well with Toronto’s roster and scheme so far.
Barrett, on the other hand, continues to struggle offensively, although his fit with Toronto is something that could work better long-term, and his rebounding has popped with the smaller lineups. He’s grabbed seven and nine boards in his first two games as a Raptor.
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Kings Betting Outlook
The Kings have made a roster move of their own, albeit nowhere near the magnitude of the Raptors. Head coach Mike Brown recently moved the struggling Kevin Huerter to the bench in favor of Chris Duarte. Huerter is certainly the better player, but this seems more of a move to shake things up and infuse Duarte’s energy into the starting five, while giving Huerter more minutes against opponent’s reserves.
De’Aaron Fox has been a big part of the Kings offense since their ascension to a pesky playoff team last season. Fox himself has ascended even further this season by drastically improving his shooting from distance. His 32.4% mark from deep in 2022-23 has skyrocketed to 39% this season — and for the Kings, 3-point shooting is hugely important. They take 41.8% of their shots from distance, which is third in the league, but that’s something the Raptors might be able to counter with their specific style of play. Toronto ranks 13th in Opponent 3-point Rate, and while they may have lost one of the best on-ball defenders in the league, Toronto just acquired two very capable perimeter defenders in Barrett and Quickley.
Raptors vs. Kings Picks, Odds
| Raptors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -112 | 238 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -108 | 238 -110o / -110u | -185 |
This feels like a spot where the Kings should take care of business, and like a possible letdown spot for Toronto. But I can’t help feeling like this is a bad matchup for Sacramento, and that the new combination of acquisitions could be giving life to this team — at least for now.
The Raptors also like to score just outside the paint, which is where the Kings give up the most shots. Players like Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl and Quickley are all proficient in that area and could have a big scoring night, so a look to any of their points props could be a strong look.
My favorite play is Barrett over 4.5 rebounds. Toronto is tending towards smaller lineups with the departure of Achiuwa, and that’s meant Barrett is one of the taller Raptors on the court at any given moment. He’s averaging nine rebound chances in his two games with Toronto. I’ll take his over in a fast game against a Kings team that ranks 10th in Pace.
I’ll also bet smaller on the Kings in the second quarter, where they’ve thrived. We could see the Raptors come out hot and lead after the first quarter, so I’ll buy the recent trend and back the home team to close out the half strong.
