Pelicans vs. Warriors Odds
| Pelicans Odds | +8.5 |
| Warriors Odds | -9.5 |
| Over/Under | 234.5 |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here. | |
The New Orleans Pelicans take on the Golden State Warriors in San Francisco on Tuesday in a game with significant seeding implications for the Western Conference playoff picture.
A win against the Warriors would mean the Pelicans could overtake them in the standings as both teams are tied in the loss column.
The Warriors are coming off a rare home meltdown against the Timberwolves on Sunday that was equally lost by Golden State as it was won by Minnesota.
KAT. CLUTCH. 😼 pic.twitter.com/DICnBtBQnE
— Minnesota Timberwolves (@Timberwolves) March 27, 2023
Let’s breakdown the odds for this Western Conference showdown and I’ll give out a pick for Pelicans vs. Warriors.
New Orleans Pelicans
Things have started to turn around for Willie Green and company, who looked bound for a lottery pick after a rough start to 2023. Prior to their four-game win streak, the Pelicans were just 10-24 since Jan. 1, but they’ve seen success lately by taking care of the bad teams convincingly.
New Orleans beat the Rockets, Spurs, Hornets and Clippers by an average margin of 21.8 points — second best in the league over that span.
The Pelicans have unlocked Brandon Ingram as the primary ballhandler, which in turn has taken some of the pressure of CJ McCollum, allowing him to act as a secondary playmaker. The results have done wonders for the Pelicans’ spacing and defense.
In the past four games, New Orleans ranks second in Rebounding Percentage (56.2), third in Assist Ratio (21.2) and fifth in True Shooting Percentage (61.6).
Trey Murphy III has been another reason for the improved spacing for the New Orleans. He’s shooting 44.7% from 3-point range during their streak thanks in part to a 10-of-12 night from downtown against the Clippers on Saturday.
Golden State Warriors
Golden State has also found its stride lately — at least on the away from home — winning back-to-back road games for the first time since the NBA Finals.
The Warriors followed up those performances with a win against the 76ers and an embarrassing home loss to the Timberwolves.
Despite the last-minute fumble on offense, the Warriors played excellent defense all game — nothing new for them at home, where their defense has been dominant.
Golden State ranks third in Defensive Rating at home despite lackluster intensity on the road. It'll certainly look to bounce back, but nine points is a lot to cover, even for the home Warriors.
Instead, playing some Jordan Poole props could be a way to go if you’re looking to play the Warriors side. Last game, his points prop was set at 17.5 juiced to the over, which he’s cleared in six of the last seven home games and six of last 10 overall. Another area of value could be his 3-pointers made. At home, he’s cleared Sunday’s line of 2.5 in the last three games and five of the last seven.
Pelicans-Warriors Pick
A blowout win over the Trail Blazers on Monday allowed the Pelicans to limit their starters' minutes in preparation for tonight's game against the Warriors. The bookmakers seem confident in the Golden State’s ability to bounce back from the Timberwolves debacle based on the opening line of Warriors -9.
I understand the Pelicans are on a back to back, but nine points is a lot to cover, even for the Warriors at home.
I will likely play the Pelicans spread at +8.5 or better, but I’m waiting for more information on the status of their starters following Monday's late finish against Portland.
Follow me in the Action App to see how I play the side (@AOWatts).
I’ll also look to Ingram over assists, although that line isn’t out yet. If they give out near 6.5 at anything close to -110, I’ll take his over and even ladder it to 9.5. He’s averaging 9.2 since their win streak started.
Also look for the Poole party props I mentioned earlier.
What I’ll definitely play is the under. The Warriors are 22-15-1 to the under at home and 7-3 to the under in their last 10 home games. Meanwhile the Pelicans are just 17-20 to the under on the road, but they’re 9-2 in their last 11 road games.
One cause for concern is the Pelicans are 7-3 to the over on back to backs, but the flip side of that coin is the Warriors are 4-1 to the under in their last five games on one day of rest.
What’s more, the under is 10-2 in their last 10 meetings. I’ll take a chance that the Pelicans are rested enough to play some defense after a blowout win.
I like the under all the way down to 231.
Pick: Under 235.5 (Bet to 231) |
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