Pelicans vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks for Monday, Jan. 15
Here's everything you need to know about Pelicans vs. Mavericks on Monday, Jan. 15 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The New Orleans Pelicans face the Dallas Mavericks for the second time in three days after these two teams faced off Saturday night. The Pelicans came away with a 118-108 win despite injuries to key players on both sides.
Luka Dončić is having another MVP-caliber season, but he’s missed the last two games with an ankle injury and is doubtful to play Monday. The Mavericks may also be without rookie center Dereck Lively II (ankle) who is questionable and in danger of missing his sixth straight game. New Orleans managed to pull off the win Saturday without the help of Zion Williamson (quad), Brandon Ingram (Achilles), CJ McCollum (ankle) or Trey Murphy III (knee). All four are probable for Monday.
Let's get to our Pelicans vs. Mavericks prediction and pick.
Pelicans vs. Mavericks Prediction
Pick: Under 235.5
Pelicans Betting Outlook
It’s never truly safe to assume availability in the NBA, but in all likelihood, we won’t be missing all four Pelicans again Monday. Saturday’s win was the second of a back-to-back for New Orleans, which took a bad loss to the defending champion Nuggets 125-113 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score would indicate. The Pelicans trailed all game and pretty much right out the gate it had the feeling of a blowout. Numerous players missing the game against Dallas was likely planned that way.
The win against Dallas two days ago was a testament to the Pelicans’ depth. They have the third highest bench Net Rating in the league (3.2) and they have the best ATS record in the second quarter at 26-14, according to EV Analytics. Players like Jordan Hawkins, Larry Nance Jr., Herb Jones and Jonas Valančiūnas all stepped up in Saturday’s win, both offensively and defensively. New Orleans showed why its the seventh-best defense in the league by holding the seventh-best offense (albeit without its best player) to just 108 points.
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Mavericks Betting Outlook
Unfortunately for the Mavericks, it looks like they won’t be getting Dončić back in time for Monday’s rematch and will have to try to get revenge with an offense led by Kyrie Irving. He was able to lead Dallas to victory against the Knicks on Thursday with a 44-point performance, but even with his heroic efforts, the Knicks kept it a four-point game.
Irving followed up that game with another high-scoring effort against New Orleans (33 points), but to a different result as the Pelicans were able to hold him to 12-of-27 shooting from the floor. Irving is carrying the bulk of the offense (33.2% Usage in the last three games without Dončić), but he needs to score a massive amount in order for Dallas to beat the good teams, as we saw against New York.
If Lively comes back, that’s great for Dallas, which gets a much more competent roll partner for Irving in two-man action. He also would be a great add to the Mavericks' defense, despite its ability to hold strong even in Lively's absence. One thing that has shifted recently, however, is the Dallas pace, which has notably slowed down over the past few games. On the season, the Mavericks play at the ninth-fastest pace (100.5), but over the past five games, they’ve dropped to 19th (98.8), according to NBA Advanced Stats.
Pelicans vs. Mavericks Picks, Odds
| Pelicans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -108 | 235.5 -110o / -110u | -166 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -112 | 235.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
I expect a bounce-back performance from Dallas, but I don’t know if they have the fire power to make it happen. I think an under is a safer play based on how the Mavericks have slowed things down and with their lack of added offensive firepower that Dončić provides.
I don’t think the books have adjusted properly to Dončić's absence nor to Nance’s return for New Orleans. Nance has a -2.5 Offensive Estimated Plus-Minus on Dunks and Threes, but he’s a +1.0 by their defensive metric and Dončić is third in the league offensively (+7.2).
With so much in flux with injuries, I’ll go small, but like the under down to 233.
However, if you like the Mavericks to get the bounce-back win, I suggest a look at Irving’s points prop over parlayed with Dallas moneyline. If the Mavericks are going to win, Irving will have to take on a lot of the scoring load.
Pick: Under 235.5
