Pacers vs. Suns Prediction, Picks for Sunday, Jan. 21
Here's everything you need to know about Pacers vs. Suns on Sunday, Jan. 21 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Phoenix Suns (23-18) are climbing up the Western Conference standings thanks to a four-game winning streak. The Suns are coming off a 123-109 road victory over the New Orleans Pelicans — a game which Suns head coach Frank Vogel described as their best defensive effort over 48 minutes this season.
Their following assignment figures to be even more challenging as they'll host a Pacers team that leads the league in scoring (125 points per game). Indiana's offense might even be more potent after the acquisition of Pascal Siakam via trade with the Raptors.
However, Siakam's debut with his new team resulted in a surprising 118-115 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers. The contest also featured the return of Pacers' point guard Tyrese Haliburton after missing five games with a hamstring injury.
Thus, there might be a bit of an adjustment period before the Pacers can get on the same page. As a result, I'd prefer to show some patience before diving into a side or total for Pacers' games.
Let's get to our Pacers vs. Suns prediction and pick.
Pacers vs. Suns Prediction
Pick: Pascal Siakam under 4.5 assists
Pacers Betting Outlook
There's no disputing Haliburton's impact on the Pacers as their floor general. When he's played this season, the Pacers are 20-15 straight up and against the spread (ATS), averaging 126.8 points per game. The total is also 23-12 to the over.
Without Haliburton, the Pacers are 4-4, with a 5-3 ATS mark, averaging 116.8 points per game — five of those eight games finished under the total.
During his recent five-game absence, the total was 4-1 to the under.
Thus, I was particularly surprised to see Friday's game against Portland finish under the total, with Haliburton returning from injury to play alongside Siakam in his debut.
Siakam finished slightly below his season-scoring average (22.2 points per game) with 21 points on 9-of-14 shooting.
While I don't expect much of a dip in Siakam's scoring, given his efficiency with a 60% True Shooting Percentage, his Usage Rate will likely drop compared to what we saw with the Raptors.
Therefore, we should find some value in fading some of his other statistical categories.
Suns Betting Outlook
Whether the Suns will have finally turned the corner depends on their commitment to defense. According to NBA Advanced Stats, Phoenix ranks 10th with a Defensive Rating of value 112.2 during this current winning streak.
Overall, Phoenix has a 115.2 Defensive Rating this season.
Following their win over the Pelicans, Vogel highlighted Kevin Durant's defensive efforts in his postgame press conference with reporters. "KD's competitive spirit the last four to five games have been off the charts," Vogel said. "We saw it again tonight — battling Brandon Ingram and limiting him as best as we could."
Ingram's 17 points were below his season average (21.5 per game), and he was just 1-for-5 from beyond the arc.
I suspect Durant will match up against Siakam, with both players occupying the power forward position. Yet, Ingram plays a more encompassing role as a facilitator, given that he leads the Pelicans in assists with 5.7 per game.
As a result, Ingram's usage rate of 26.9% is higher than that of Siakam's (24.7%). Although it's only a one-game sample size, it's worth noting that Siakam's usage rate was down to 21.9% in his Pacers debut.
Pacers vs. Suns Picks, Odds
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -112 | 247 -115o / -105u | +160 |
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -108 | 247 -115o / -105u | -192 |
Following the Siakam trade, John Schuhmann of NBA.com had an interesting writeup detailing 12 key stats about the Pacers' newest acquisition. The one that jumped out to me was that Siakam's usage rate this season is his lowest in the last five years.
Schuhmann also stated that Siakam has been assisted on 59.4% of his field goals—his highest mark in six years. That number could be even higher playing alongside Haliburton, who leads the league with 12.6 assists per game.
Siakam's offensive efficiency should match up nicely in Indiana, with Haliburton pulling the strings on offense. And given Siakam's declining usage rate, I see fewer opportunities for him to run the offense as a facilitator.
As a result, I like the value of fading Siakam to finish under his assists prop of 4.5 (-105) at BetMGM. Although he's averaging 4.8 assists per game, the market's been a little slow to adjust this number, given his new circumstances following the trade.
Pick: Pascal Siakam under 4.5 assists (-105)
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