Pacers vs Raptors Prediction, Picks
Here's everything you need to know about Pacers vs. Raptors on Wednesday, Feb. 14 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Indiana Pacers travel across the border to face the Raptors in Toronto on Wednesday night.
The last time these two faced off on Nov. 22, both teams looked a lot different. In fact, they've even swapped some players since then.
Tuesday night’s game will be their first matchup since the trade that sent Pascal Siakam to the Pacers and Bruce Brown and Jordan Nwora to the Raptors.
There are a few injuries to note before jumping into analysis. Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) and Bennedict Mathurin (knee) are both questionable for Indiana, while RJ Barrett (personal) is questionable for Toronto.
Let's get to our Pacers vs. Raptors prediction and pick.
Pacers vs Raptors Prediction
Pick: Raptors Team Total Under 120.5
Pacers Betting Outlook
The Pacers have had an incredible season offensively. A big part of their offensive identity to start the season was to play with tempo, immediately passing up the floor after their opponent made a shot.
They have one of the best floor generals in the league in Haliburton, and with his ability to read the full court, they can push the pace and catch opposing defenses off guard.
Since the trade deadline, however, a few things have changed regarding their play style and offensive identity.
Haliburton has been nursing a hamstring injury and would likely just rest under normal circumstances. However, in order to qualify for All-NBA —and with that, be eligible for a much larger contract extension — he’s been playing 20 minutes to meet the minimum games played mark.
With less Haliburton and more Siakam, the tempo has slowed and the defense has been somewhat better.
And since trading away Buddy Hield, the offense hasn’t been quite as potent despite the defense stepping up. The Pacers offense scored 5.3 more points per 100 possessions in Hield’s minutes, while the defense allowed 3.2 more, per PBP Stats.
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Raptors Betting Outlook
While the Pacers have one of the best offenses in the league, the Raptors are near the bottom.
They rank 21st in offensive rating on the season (114.6), per Cleaning the Glass. However, that mark has been even worse over the past two weeks, coming in at 27th (108.6).
Toronto has failed to crack 100 points in either of its last two games, and yet, neither were slow-paced matchups. In fact, the pace doesn’t seem to matter either way for the Raptors. They continue to struggle on offense, while their defense isn’t much better.
Part of these issues stem from the acquisitions of Immanuel Quickley and Barrett, who looked like positive additions at first — Barrett, in particular, has had himself somewhat of a revival — but have since struggled in the place of OG Anunoby, who went to New York in the trade.
Quickley has yet to find his groove in the new environment and has struggled in a starting role with Toronto after years of success cooking second units off the bench with the Knicks.
Pacers vs Raptors Prediction, Odds
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4 -112 | 245 -115o / -105u | -175 |
| Raptors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4 -108 | 245 -115o / -105u | +145 |
My initial lean was toward the under in this game due to Indiana's addition of Siakam, subtraction of Hield and Haliburton playing fewer minutes. However, Hali's minutes have exceeded 30 in the past two games, and it looks like he’s ramping back up to his usual workload.
The other reason I liked the under was the chance to fade a Raptors offense that has looked terrible lately. That’s still the angle that intrigues me more.
The Pacers defense has looked serviceable in recent games, and the Raptors continue to struggle in the half-court even in higher-paced contests.
I’ll look at Toronto’s team total under. It’s been one of the most reliable plays in the league this season with only Memphis, Washington and Denver exceeding their team total fewer times.
And for whatever reason, the Raptors team total line continues to be especially overvalued at home, where they’re just 7-19 to the over on the season and 2-8 in their last 10 games.
Toronto's team total currently sits at 120.5, which is a number it's exceeded just twice in the last six games — with one of those needing overtime to hit — and three times in the last 13 games.
I have significant leeway here and would confidently take its team total under down to 116.5.
