Pacers vs. Celtics Prediction, Picks for Tuesday, Jan. 30
Here's everything you need to know about Pacers vs. Celtics on Tuesday, Jan. 30 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
With the season series tied at two games apiece, the Pacers and Celtics will have their final meeting on Tuesday night unless both teams face one another during the playoffs. The Celtics are off to a 1-1 start on their seven-game homestand that extends into next weekend.
On Monday night, the Celtics bounced back from their second home loss (Clippers) with a 118-112 victory over the Pelicans. They'll now have a quick turnaround and play the second leg of a back-to-back against a Pacers team that will have a one-day rest advantage.
The Pacers are on a three-game winning streak as Pascal Siakam looks like he's starting to find his footing after arriving from Toronto via trade. His first three games with Indiana all resulted in losses.
Siakam could play his second game alongside point guard Tyrese Haliburton, who's missed the Pacers' last five games with a strained hamstring. Haliburton will be a game-time decision along with Myles Turner (back), Bennedict Mathurin (toe) and Jalen Smith (back).
If we turn to the Celtics, Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) is their only key player on the injury report unless we get some load-management news regarding other players later in the day. Porzingis will also be a game-time decision.
Given the uncertain status of so many pivotal players, it's tough to reach a decision on either side or total. Instead, I plan to identify some player prop options on both teams to keep things interesting.
Let's get to our Pacers vs. Celtics prediction and pick.
Pacers vs. Celtics Prediction
Picks (2): Aaron Nesmith over 5.5 rebounds + assists (+105) | Jaylen Brown over 22.5 points (-110)
Bonus: SGP (+230): Nesmith 4+ rebounds / Brown 20+ points / Derrick White over 1.5 3-pointers
Pacers Betting Outlook
We know Indiana plays at the fastest pace in the league, averaging 106.2 possessions per game, according to TeamRankings. Yet, it's still remarkable how well this team shares the ball. Haliburton certainly plays a massive role, considering he leads the NBA with 12.6 assists per game.
This season, the Pacers lead the league with 31 assists per game. But if you look at this recent stretch of five games without Haliburton, they averaged 30.4 assists, which is good enough for fifth in the league during that span.
The Pacers' ability to move the ball explains why they have eight players scoring in double figures this season. Thus, this Indiana team is a dream scenario for bettors looking to dabble in the player props market.
Pick 1: Aaron Nesmith over 5.5 rebounds + assists (+105 at BetMGM)
I love this combo prop for Nesmith because he's had 16 straight starts after coming off the bench for much of the campaign. Last season, he started 60 of 73 games, so perhaps he's had to play his way out of the coach's dog house a bit.
Let's not forget that the Celtics drafted Nesmith 14th overall in 2020 before trading him two years later as part of the Malcolm Brogdon deal.
Over Nesmith's last four games, he's averaging 7.5 rebounds while chipping in three assists per game.
While I expect his assists to drop if the Pacers get their starting point guard back, Nesmith's energy on the glass is entirely independent of Haliburton's status. And given how Boston likes to shoot from the perimeter, there should be plenty of opportunities for long rebounds with Nesmith coming in from his wing position.
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Celtics Betting Outlook
One thing that makes the Celtics difficult to handicap is that they're incredibly balanced on both ends of the court. Despite leading the league in offensive efficiency with 117.4 points per 100 possessions, the total is only 23-24 in Celtics games this season.
That's because Boston is also a capable defensive team, ranking third in efficiency, allowing 108.1 points per 100 possessions.
And since the Celtics have the league's highest net rating (+9.3), bookmakers are keeping a close eye on them because they've become a public favorite. As a result, I suspect bettors have to pay a premium to back the C's. That could explain why Boston is only 23-22-2 despite enjoying close to a double-digit point differential.
In this head-to-head series with the Pacers, both teams have won two games each and covered two games, and the over-under is also holding even at 2-2.
These findings further support my reasoning for targeting the player props in this matchup.
Pick 2: Jaylen Brown over 22.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Although this prop is right around Brown's season average (22.6 points), he's scored at least 30 points in his last three games against the Pacers.
Moreover, the Pacers allow the fifth-most points (23.8) to shooting guards this season.
Given that the total is up to 245 after opening at 242.5, the market is expecting a high-scoring affair. Brown should also have opportunities to score from behind the arc with the Pacers contesting the fourth-fewest 3-pointers (15.3 per game).
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Pacers vs. Celtics Picks, Odds
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 245.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 245.5 -110o / -110u | -325 |
While I like the idea of playing these props individually, I'll also look to target these players as part of a BetMGM same-game parlay.
But since BetMGM isn't currently offering a rebound + assists market, I'll go with Nesmith to record at least four rebounds, which still aligns with my initial analysis.
For Brown's scoring prop, we have a lesser option of 20 or more points that's available.
Lastly, I touched on the Pacers' struggles to defend the perimeter. One player who can certainly take advantage of that weakness is Derrick White, who made four 3-pointers his last time out and shoots 39.6% from beyond the arc. In three of the four meetings against the Pacers, he finished the game with two or more 3-pointers.
Without White, the odds of this two-leg same-game parlay would only be +120.
However, making a three-leg parlay would boost our odds to +230. I think there's some value there, so I'll roll the dice for the chance at an even better payout.
