Pacers vs. Bucks Picks, Prediction for Wednesday, Dec. 13
Here's everything you need to know about Pacers vs. Bucks on Wednesday, Dec. 13 — our expert prediction and betting pick for today.
After two losses against Indiana this season, the Milwaukee Bucks (16-7) will hope the third time's the charm when they host the Pacers (13-8) on Wednesday night at Fiserv Forum.
This Pacers team is much improved compared to those of years past because the Pacers now not only play at a blistering pace but also take quality shots.
Fourth-year point guard Tyrese Haliburton orchestrates the offense with the precision of a symphony conductor, dictating his teammates' movement in search of high-percentage shots.
Haliburton's development as one of the premier point guards in the league has made Indiana a much more efficient team. While this combination of pace and efficiency is often associated with quality teams, we'll explore an interesting betting angle that places value on underdogs in this unique spot.
Let's get to our Pacers vs. Bucks pick and prediction below.
Pacers vs. Bucks Prediction
Pick: Pacers +6.5 or better
Pacers Thriving with Pace & Space
Per NBA.com, the Pacers have a +3.8 Net Rating, which is tied for seventh in the league. Their offense has led the way as it leads the league in efficiency with 123.5 points per 100 possessions while playing at the fastest pace in the association at 104.17 possessions per game.
For comparison, the Wizards are second in pace with 104.05 possessions per game but rank 23rd in Offensive Rating (111.1 points per 100 possessions).
Maximize your Pacers vs. Bucks action with our DraftKings promo code.
While I won't deny that the Wizards have a laundry list of problems associated with their team, the takeaway is that playing faster can still be largely ineffective if you lack efficiency.
One stat that might be the most revealing is a team's effective field goal percentage, which accounts for 3-point field goals being worth more than 2-point field goals. Indiana also leads the league in this category with a 58.8% mark.
Are the Bucks Overvalued?
If we follow the same approach with Milwaukee, the Bucks are tied for 11th with a lower Net Rating of 3.2. Offensively, Milwaukee ranks fourth in efficiency with 119.0 points per 100 possessions. In terms of pace, Milwaukee does try to play fast, ranking fifth with 102.05 possessions per game.
Nonetheless, the Bucks do work harder for their buckets as they sit 28th with 11.1 fastbreak points per game. If you're wondering, the Pacers also rank first in this metric, averaging 17.5 fastbreak points.
One area in which the Bucks do have an advantage is at the free throw line, where they rank sixth with 25.6 attempts per contest compared to 22.5 for the Pacers. However, that edge might be negated given that Milwaukee (76.9%) sits 22nd in free throw shooting while Indiana is eighth at 79.6%.
After putting it all together, is this a Bucks team that should be laying 6.5 points to the Pacers?
Pacers vs. Bucks Pick, Odds
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 257.5 -110/-110 | +210 |
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 257.5 -110/-110 | -255 |
After running the numbers, my model makes the Pacers closer to a 4.5-point underdog in this matchup. Despite their promising start, there are spots this season where the market will discredit the Pacers, and this is undoubtedly one of them.
The data suggests that this Pacers team is a bad matchup for the Bucks, and we're getting points with a potentially better team that has already beaten the Bucks twice this season.
It's easy for teams to get sped up when facing an opponent like the Pacers with an Offensive Rating of 118 or higher, especially when both teams have defenses that rank in the bottom third in the NBA.
And if you play faster against the team that plays at the fastest pace in the league, you're almost doing them a favor because you're forced to play at their pace while having to match their ridiculous efficiency. Now imagine that the team you're facing is an underdog already catching some points even before the opening tip.
Our Action Labs database, which goes back to the 2005 season, shows that favorites haven't been profitable in this spot against opponents with an efficiency of at least 118 points and a high opening total of 240 or more.
Historically, this angle is on a 0-7 run, and there's a decent foundation here to make a case for the Pacers as underdogs in this situational spot.
