Magic vs. Heat Predictions, Picks · Tuesday, Feb. 6
Here's everything you need to know about Magic vs. Heat on Tuesday, Feb. 6 — our expert predictions and betting picks for today.
The Orlando Magic will try to earn a split of the regular season series when it visits the Miami Heat on Tuesday night. After a 0-2 start in the series, Orlando looked convincing in its 105-87 victory in late January. A win would extend Orlando's lead over Miami in the Southeast Division to two games.
The Magic enter this game in good form, riding a three-game winning streak. However, you'd have to go back to 2018 to find the last time Orlando won back-to-back games against Miami in the same season. Nonetheless, Miami appears to be vulnerable with just two wins in its last 10 games.
The Heat opened as a four-point favorite and were already bet down to -3.5. But to get an idea of what we can expect from this game, you only need to look at a total currently trading at 211.5 — the fifth-lowest mark in the NBA this season.
In this betting preview, I'll share how this low total can impact Orlando in the player props market. Let's get to our Magic vs. Heat prediction and pick.
Magic vs. Heat Predictions
• Paolo Banchero Rebounds + Assists Over 11.5
• Paolo Banchero 6+ Assists
• Franz Wagner Under 20.5 Points
Orlando Magic Betting Outlook
With a 27-23 record, Orlando has already improved its record by eight games compared to where it was at this stage in the previous campaign. The transformation has probably been more about maturity as the Magic are learning how to deal with late-game situations.
Last season, Orlando was 19-25 in clutch games, which the NBA defines as the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime when the score is within five points. This season, Orlando is 15-11 in those clutch spots, and it's played a role in its overall record.
Interestingly, the Magic's underlying metrics don't show any drastic improvements. Per TeamRankings, Orlando's offensive efficiency only improved from 108.1 points per 100 possessions to 109.1. Defensively, Orlando has gone from allowing 110.6 points per possession to 108.2.
Generally, when you see a team's record improve by as many games as we've seen with Orlando, you tend to see at least a four-point swing in one of its efficiency metrics. One thing that makes Orlando a little bit unique is that most teams have receded defensively, with 21 posting a worse efficiency rating compared to the previous year.
But to take that next step, Orlando needs to somehow get a better performance from its backcourt. Orlando ranks just 27th in assists, averaging 24.6 per game. It also ranks dead last in perimeter shooting with 10.7 3-point field goals per game. The better teams in the league tend to do well in at least one of these categories, and Orlando struggles in both of them.
Instead, Orlando places too much burden on its young frontcourt players, with forwards Paolo Banchero (23 points / 5.1 assists) and Franz Wagner (20.8 points / 4.0 assists) being the team's top-two leaders in scoring and assists.
Miami Heat Betting Outlook
Miami is one of the aforementioned teams that has worsened defensively, as it's gone from allowing 109.5 points per 100 possessions to 111.1. However, Miami is still a top-15 defensive team.
Offensively, Miami is almost a carbon copy of what we saw last season, with its efficiency only improving four-tenths of a point to 110.0.
The playing style is still roughly the same, as Miami is once again 29th in pace with 100.1 possessions per game, up from 99.6.
Unfortunately, there's not a ton of excitement when it comes to watching this Miami team that now has the seventh-oldest roster (27.1 average player age) in the league according to Spotrac.
Miami shoots just 46% from the floor, which ranks 27th in the NBA. The three teams with a worse shooting percentage are the Hornets, Trail Blazers and Grizzlies. All three teams are under .500 and have a combined 106 losses this season.
Hence, when opposing teams face Miami, you can be sure there'll be plenty of opportunities to rebound the basketball. Yet for a team that misses as frequently as Miami does, it ranks 25th in offensive rebounding (9.7 per game) and 26th in total rebounds (49.7 per game).
Orlando can take advantage of Miami's shortcomings on the glass as it ranks 11th in total rebounds (52.4).
Magic vs. Heat Picks, Odds
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -112 | 213.5 -112o / -108u | +124 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -108 | 213.5 -112o / -108u | -148 |
Pick #1: Paolo Banchero Rebounds + Assists Over 11.5 (+100)
Pick #2: Paolo Banchero 6+ Assists (+155)
Banchero will likely play a central role in Orlando's bid to win this game, which makes him an easy target for our Magic player props. I already spoke about the edge Orlando should have on the glass, and Banchero is a big part of it.
The Duke product posted eight or more rebounds in all three meetings with the Heat this season. That streak even extends to five games if you count last season.
Banchero's usage rate of 29.9% (ranked 16th) also cements his role as the team's primary facilitator. He has amassed six or more assists in seven straight games.
Thus, his FanDuel rebounds+assists combo prob offers tremendous value at over 11.5 / +100. I'd also look to play an escalator on Banchero to record 6+ assists at +155.
Pick #3: Franz Wagner Under 20.5 Points (-110)
I love the thought of fading Wagner off his 38-point performance against the Pistons. The second-year player should face much more resistance against this Miami defensive outfit.
Bam Adebayo will likely draw the defensive assignment on Wagner. In Wagner's last seven meetings against the Heat, he's yet to eclipse the 20-point mark.
Interestingly, the only time he scored 20 or more points against Miami was his rookie year — in a game that did not feature Adebayo. Somehow, I don't think that's a coincidence, and with points potentially being hard to come by in this game, look for Adebayo to frustrate Wagner yet again.
