Magic vs. Cavaliers Odds, Pick
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 201.5 -110/-110 | +165 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 201.5 -110/-110 | -200 |
Here's everything you need to know about Magic vs. Cavaliers on Tuesday, April 30 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.
The Magic seemingly took back control of their opening-round series against the Cavaliers with a commanding win in Game 4, and will now head back to Cleveland looking to take a pivotal Game 5 as underdogs.
Is Cleveland out of answers after failing miserably on both ends of the floor in Orlando? Or might the favorites have a way in here at home?
Let's get right into my Magic vs. Cavaliers pick.
Orlando Magic
Well, that was some turnaround. Orlando's vaunted defense showed up in a big way through the first two games of the series, but its offense was nowhere to be found.
Then, suddenly, some 3s started falling and this offense found a plethora of ways in against Cleveland's defense. The Magic have shot the 3 at a solid 39.6% clip over the past two games, according to Cleaning the Glass, and have mixed that in with nearly 60% shooting from the mid-range and a passable, yet middling, 64.4% conversion rate at the rim. This was certainly a stunning development considering the Magic struggled on jumpers all season.
Those inefficient jump shots may cease falling given the season-long trends, but the Cavaliers certainly didn't do a great job of defending the 3 this season. If you're looking for something sustainable about those two games, the 3-point shot is certainly what I'd lean on here. It's also worth noting that the Magic ranked ninth in outside shooting from March until the end of the regular season.
Cleveland Cavaliers
It all fell apart for the defense-oriented Cavaliers in Orlando as they allowed 134.4 points per 100 possessions in Game 3 and 120.4 per 100 in Game 4. They were also crushed on the glass by a huge margin after winning the battle on the boards through two games, though the warning signs were certainly there after the Magic closed the gap from Game 1 to Game 2.
That's somewhere you'd definitely expect the Magic to win, given they grabbed the fourth-highest percentage of available rebounds in the regular season — 11 spots ahead of the Cavaliers. Where you'd expect the Cavaliers to do a better job in this series is at the rim — where they can really kill Orlando's spirits.
Cleveland certainly leaned on its excellent front-court defense through two games, posting a fantastic 51.9% defense, before defending at a 64.4% clip over the next two games. That number is pretty close to the Cavs' top-five mark for the regular season and should theoretically be enough to win this series, but they'll have to shore up that 3-point defense at home.
Magic vs. Cavaliers
Betting Pick & Prediction
These teams both have excellent frontcourts, which is why this first-round matchup promised to be a close affair, even if it didn't feature much offense. The Magic certainly bucked the trend with a barrage of 3s over the past two games, but returning to Cleveland may change things a bit.
The Magic were worse by half a percentage point from deep on the road this season, but the Cavaliers were actually significantly worse in defending the 3 at home and allowed nearly 40% shooting to the Magic in the season series.
My initial inclination here was to back the Cavaliers, but I think there is more than enough here to believe in Orlando's shooting. They were inside the top-10 from 3 in March and April and have a huge edge there as Cleveland has struggled against the 3 all season.
Additionally, the Magic are beginning to run away with the rebounding battle. I like them to win this game, so I'll take the points.
