Nuggets vs. Warriors Prediction, Pick
Here's everything you need to know about Nuggets vs. Warriors on Thursday, Jan. 4 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
Golden State's seven-game homestand got off to a rocky start with back-to-back losses, prompting a players-only meeting to air out any grievances. The impromptu gathering paid dividends as Golden State bounced back to defeat the Orlando Magic, 121-115.
Next up for the Warriors is a Denver Nuggets team they faced on Christmas Day in a 120-114 loss.
Golden State is 0-2 against the Nuggets this season, with both games played in Denver. Will the venue change finally give the Warriors their breakthrough?
Let's take a look. Here's our Nuggets vs. Warriors prediction and pick.
Nuggets vs. Warriors Prediction
Pick: Warriors +3 (-109)
Nuggets Betting Outlook
The Nuggets have won eight of their last 10 games to improve to 24-11, one game behind the Timberwolves for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. The underlying number suggests this Nuggets team is better than last year's unit that won the championship.
Their offensive and defensive efficiency metrics have improved this year compared to the previous campaign. Denver is also one of four teams ranked in the top 10 for both categories, according to TeamRankings.
What's most surprising about the Nuggets ranking so high offensively is they're not overly reliant on the 3-pointers. Denver ranks 21st in 3-point field goals and 23rd in 3-point attempts.
Where the Nuggets do most of their damage is inside the paint, ranking fifth with 54.6 points per game.
It's all about balance with this Nuggets team that does a tremendous job sharing the ball. Denver sits second in assists with 29.7 per game.
Nuggets center Nikola Jokic serves as their primary facilitator while also helping to slow the game down to a pace of their liking.
And given Jokic's dominance inside the paint, the Nuggets get plenty of high-percentage shots close to the rim in late-game situations, resulting in the third-best clutch mark in the league at 12-6, according to NBA.com.
Warriors Betting Outlook
At 16-17, the Warriors are the only sub—500 team in the league with a positive Net Rating (0.5). In comparison, Sacramento has a 0.7 Net Rating but has a 20-13 record.
Thus, Golden State's positive Net Rating might suggest it has been a bit unlucky this season. But even if you used the Pythagorean Expectation to project the Warriors' expected wins, their record would only improve to 17-16.
I suspect Golden State improves only marginally using this metric because it plays so many close games. The Warriors lead the league with 26 clutch games where the the score is within five points the final five minutes of the fourth quarter.
Golden State's mark in those games is 13-13.
I can't help but think that the Warriors would better that record if they attempted more high-percentage shots. Golden State ranks dead last in points in the paint with 43.3 per game.
The Warriors need to show more balance on offense, considering that it ranks 18th in effective field goal percentage (54.3%), which adjusts to account for the fact that 3-point field goals count more.
That number should be higher, given how many 3-pointers the Warriors attempt and make on a given night.
Nuggets vs. Warriors Pick, Odds
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 235 -110o / -110u | -175 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 235 -110o / -110u | +146 |
Following Golden State's recent loss to Denver, Warriors head coach Steve Kerr lamented to the media about the referees having a soft whistle that sent Jokic to the line 18 times. As a team, Golden State attempted just 23 free throws collectively.
Jokic went on to hit all 18 of his free throw attempts.
It wasn't by chance that Kerr made those comments. Instead, he's setting the stage for this Nuggets rematch on his team's home court.
Given that both losses to Denver were by seven or fewer points, the Warriors can ill-afford any cheap trips to the line for Jokic.
The good news for the Warriors is they're not getting blown out of these games. However, they need to improve their performance in the clutch moments.
Playing at home certainly gives them a chance, as they're 8-5 in these spots.
Moreover, according to KillerSports.com, when the Warriors are underdogs of two or more points facing a team they've lost to by seven or fewer points twice in a season, they're 9-4-1 against the spread.
Since my model projects the Nuggets should be closer to a one-point favorite, I'll gladly pocket the three points with the home team.
Pick: Warriors +3 (-109 at BetRivers)
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