Nuggets vs. Clippers Prediction, Picks for Wednesday, Dec. 6
Here's everything you need to know about Nuggets vs. Clippers on Wednesday, Dec. 6 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Nuggets and Clippers have already met twice this season, and both games have been worth the price of admission. Though LA has yet to overcome Denver, Wednesday night presents a great chance with the status of Jamal Murray up in the air and the Clippers playing some better basketball over the last couple of weeks.
Let's get to our Nuggets vs. Clippers prediction and pick.
Nuggets vs. Clippers Prediction
Pick: Clippers ML (-110)
Nuggets Betting Outlook
We don't really know what's going to happen here with Jamal Murray. The Nuggets are 14-7 and have won three of their last four without the star guard, so there is theoretically no rush to get him back on the floor. He returned from a 10-game absence only to tweak his ankle early in the first quarter, and he's missed two games since. He's listed as questionable here and seems to be trending towards an imminent return, but the line certainly points to some skepticism that he'll actually suit up here.
In terms of recent performance, Denver's defense is back to being the lackadaisical unit we've grown accustomed to seeing in recent years. It ranks 20th in efficiency over the last seven games, perhaps given the increased usage of Reggie Jackson at point guard in the absence of Murray. He's more or less helped the Nuggets retain a high-powered attack on offense, but he's left a lot to be desired on the defensive end and the team would certainly improve on both ends with the return of Murray.
The Nuggets' biggest weakness on defense has come in defending the three, where they rank 19th according to Cleaning the Glass, and against a team which shoots at the league average from each zone on the floor they'd be the 19th-best defense in terms of effective field goal percentage. They've certainly been fortunate to run into some poor offenses over the last couple of weeks, and plenty which struggle to shoot from outside.
Clippers Betting Outlook
The Clippers have been right around the league average in terms of three-point shooting, and they've really thrived from midrange with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard powering this offense. LA is currently second in terms of shot frequency from midrange and have shot a solid 44.7% from that zone this season. It's not a picture-perfect matchup against Denver, given the Clippers haven't been the strongest from three, but things have picked up in recent weeks with James Harden joining the fold and with Ty Lue's preferred style of play there's a strong chance we see this team rise up the shooting ranks in the coming weeks and months.
One area where the Clippers have surprisingly gotten a ton better in recent weeks is on the defensive end. They're ranked sixth in terms of efficiency over their last seven games and for the season now stand just outside the top five of the NBA. They've managed to hold Denver — one of the best offenses in the league — to a combined 224 points thus far in two games. That's due to the fact that they've been excellent at defending the three, ranking third in basketball with just 34.2% of looks from opponents going down.
The rebounding numbers have fluctuated with Ivica Zubac's minutes going up and down like a yo-yo, but on the whole the Clippers, ranked 13th in that area, are at least competitive with Denver. They handily out-rebounded Denver in their first meeting before narrowly losing the battle on the glass next time around, but that game was played without Nikola Jokic which actually buoyed the Nuggets' rebounding numbers given Deandre Jordan played 34 minutes and Michael Porter saw more time at power forward.
Nuggets vs. Clippers Picks, Odds
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 228 -115o / -105u | -110 |
| Clippers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 228 -115o / -105u | -110 |
The Clippers may have split their last six games, but they've exhibited excellence on the defensive end with some inspiring performances against Sacramento and Golden State in recent weeks. On paper, they're well-equipped to deal with a Denver team that kills teams from beyond the arc, and now that Zubac seems to be getting more consistent minutes, particularly against some of the better offensive bigs in the game, I think this is finally the night where LA can take down Denver.
Keep in mind, it was late in that first meeting between the two teams that Denver was able to score at ease with Jokic versus a smaller lineup that didn't include the Clippers' lone big and that will all but certainly be corrected on Wednesday. Lue loves to experiment with his lineups, deploying PJ Tucker as the small-ball five in that matchup, and we haven't seem him go back to that since.
With the status of Murray a mystery, I am not totally sold he'll play big minutes here even if he's ready to start this one. That has the potential to swing this even further in the Clippers' favor, and I like them to showcase their brilliant defense on national television here and ride it to a win. Keep in mind, too, that the Nuggets have shot just 33.8% from three on the road this year, which is nearly six points worse than their mark at home.
