Nets vs Celtics Picks
The Nets and Celtics just played each in last night in Brooklyn. The Celtics won, 118-110, and they covered against the Nets, depending on when you bet.
The Nets opened as nine-point dogs, but the line could've been found at +7.5 before tip.
Regardless, it was an eight-point win for Boston at Barclays, and it looked poised to be much more. Will the same thing happen tonight? Let's break down the rematch and make some Nets vs. Celtics picks and predictions.
Nets vs Celtics Prediction
Pick: Nets +13
Nets Betting Outloook
The C's, elite as they are, are just 14-14 against the spread as a home favorite, putting them in the bottom half of the league. They're also in similar territory after wins, sitting at 17-22-2 ATS and putting them near the bottom 10.
Also uninspiring? The Celtics are 9-12-1 with the same rest as their opponents, only better than five teams in the NBA. But on no rest, they're 5-4 ATS, which actually lands them in the top 10 in the league.
So, if I could describe the quality of the Celtics' relevant ATS numbers heading into tonight, I'd simply take the phrase "ATS" and trade the T for a second S.
To the totals.
As a home favorite, Boston has hit 14 overs in 28 contests, and if my math is correct, that means they've hit 14 unders — I was a decent math student in school until they added the alphabet, but I believe that's correct. OK? Cool.
Nothing else pops out significantly to push me in either direction, though one notable number regarding totals is that Boston has hit 13 unders in 22 games with the same rest as its opponents — sixth in under percentage.
On the injury front, Al Horford played last night and he's been sitting back-to-backs, so I'd expect him out. Kristaps Porzingis (back), Xavier Tillman (knee) and Jaden Springer (ankle) were all inactive Tuesday.
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Celtics Betting Outlook
Speaking of unspectacular metrics, Brooklyn is 15-15-1 against the spread following a loss, which resides in the middle of the league. It's 8-9 ATS as a road underdog (better than just 11 teams), 14-17 ATS on the same rest as its opponents (better than just nine teams) and 2-4-1 on no rest (better than just six teams).
Only one team in the NBA — the Clippers — has hit more unders by percentage than the Nets, who have cashed 19 unders in 30 games after a loss. Otherwise, they hover around .500 in over/unders on the scenarios I outlined, mirroring the Celtics.
Regarding injuries, Ben Simmons won't play the second leg of the back-to-back because of injury management — even though Brooklyn literally won't play again for over a week.
Cam Johnson sat Tuesday with a thigh injury, but head coach Jacque Vaughn says he's on track to return Wednesday.
Nets vs Celtics Prediction, Odds
| Nets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 228.5 -110o / -110u | +600 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 228.5 -110o / -110u | -900 |
I recognize the Celtics have the best record in the league again. They're a machine in terms of their record, and they're better than anyone else in the regular season. But this team is unreliable to bet on. Plus, their supposed dominance has been largely overstated.
Knowing that Simmons is out and Porzingis may play, the Celtics should cover the -13 spread. That said, the Wizards just covered in Boston last week, and all the main characters were healthy.
I'll ride with the Nets to cover the +13.
Brooklyn owns an effective field goal percentage of a 67% in close and late situations over the last two weeks, which is fourth-best in the NBA, according to our PRO Report. The Celtics have allowed an effective field goal percentage of 66% in close and late situations in the last two weeks, the second-worst mark in the league.
We have this line projected at a number similar to last night's spread. For as good as Boston has been, it's underwhelming ATS, so back Brooklyn to cover.
