Last night, things got ugly very quickly for the Mavericks in New Orleans. That is not surprising given that Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving both struggled. Against the Wizards tonight, both are in great spots to bounce back. However, I will be backing Doncic tonight.
The Hawks picked up a road victory in Detroit without Trae Young. He has been a villain in New York since he played an integral role in helping the Hawks eliminate the Knicks in the first round of the 2021 NBA Playoffs. This time, they will square off in Atlanta, but it may be Julius Randle stealing the show.
In Los Angeles, the Kings and Lakers will renew their rivalry for the second time this year. The Kings pulled out an overtime victory a few weeks ago, but that game also cost them De'Aaron Fox for an extended period. Fox is back in the lineup tonight and he may be motivated to have a big scoring night.
While I try to look for high hit rates, the reality is no player is going to hit all their props in all 82 games. It is important to identify players in good spots to bounce back. There are not many players I trust to bounce back after a poor outing than Luka Doncic.
Last night, Doncic shot 5-for-16 from the field, scored just 16 points, handed out 2 assists and turned the ball over eight times. He did not come close to hitting this line last night, but he has went over in 7-of-11 games this season, finishing with 36 in another. Doncic has had 40 points and assists combined in five games already this season. Prior to last night's game, he was averaging 41.1 points and assists per game.
The beauty of the blowout last night is that Doncic played just 26 minutes, so he should be fresh despite the travel spot. He should be ready to feast on a great matchup tonight. The Wizards are 27th in points allowed per game and dead last in assists allowed per game. The Wizards are allowing just 106.5 points over their last two games. However, that did not stop Mikal Bridges, Scotties Barnes, and Pascal Siakam from going over their points + assists lines.
Doncic is capable of going over this line with 38 points. However, a 30 point, 10 assist game would give him 40 combined tonight and clear this line.
Julius Randle is one of the best rebounders in the NBA and his motor especially stands out in the regular season. Last week, we backed him for over 9.5 rebounds against the Clippers and he finished with 10, hitting his average on the season in the process. Interestingly enough, he was hooked on 13 rebounds + assists in that game. However, that has not happened often this season.
Randle has hit this line in six of his first 10 games this season. In addition to the Clippers game, two of the misses came in blowouts. However, he smashed this line in the first meeting against the Hawks in October. In that game, he had 12 rebounds and 9 assists for 21 combined. It is not out of the norm for him as he has hit this line in three of the last four meetings against Atlanta, averaging 18 per game in that span.
What I like about this play is that Randle can hit this line or come close with just rebounds. He already has four games with 12+ rebounds, including one with 16 against San Antonio. He also has had at least 11 rebounds in three of the past four meetings against the Hawks. However, he is also averaging 4.9 assists per game to lead the Knicks this season.
With Jalen Brunson taking on more of a scoring role to begin this season, Randle has picked a few extra assist opportunities. Randle's ability to impact the game on the glass and as a playmaker should help him hit this line tonight.
When I looked at the NBA schedule this week, I noticed that the Kings will be in San Antonio on Friday. I had hoped De'Aaron Fox would be back by then to tolerate another National TV spot for the Spurs. Fox was initially ruled doubtful for Monday's game against Cleveland, but he came back earlier than expected. It did not take him long to shake off any rust as he had 28 points on 11-for-20 shooting from the field.
Fox initially injured his ankle on October 29th against the Lakers, but not before scoring 37 points. When Fox is at full strength, he is a handful for the Lakers (and most teams) to deal with. Fox has scored 30 points in four of his last five games against the Lakers, averaging 31.2 per game in that span. He scored 22 points in the other game, so he was still not far off.
The Lakers are allowing 115.1 points per game this season and they have been vulnerable against guards. Fox, Russell Westbrook, Jalen Green, and Bradley all have scored at least 24 points. The Lakers will again be without Gabe Vincent. Additionally, on the second of a back-to-back, the statuses of Anthony Davis and LeBron James bearing monitoring as well.
If Davis is resting tonight, Fox will have free reign once he gets into the paint. Either way, he will come into tonight's game averaging 30.5 points per game this season. He has taken 20 field goal attempts in each of his last three games. He should have the volume to score 27-30 points tonight.
