Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid and Luka Doncic and are the top three betting favorites to win league MVP this season. Doncic and Embiid are each averaging more than 30 points per game while Jokic is not far behind at 29 points per game. While all three of them can fill it up, the attention they command opens things up for their teammates as well. I am expecting that to continue tonight. Let's begin with Embiid, whose Sixers will be taking on the Celtics in Boston.
Here are my best NBA props to bet tonight. Let's take a look at the NBA player props you should target with Friday's slate of games.
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With James Harden back in Los Angeles, the ball is moving a lot more in Philadelphia. Tyrese Maxey has taken on increased playmaking responsibilities and leads the team with 6.7 assists per game. Just behind him is Embiid at 6.6 assists per game. Embiid has recorded six assists in 12-of-16 games this year, including seven of his last eight games. He was hooked on five last Tuesday against the Cavaliers as well.
Embiid and Maxey get a handful of assists to each other out of their two-man game. However, Embiid also draws plenty of double teams as well. That leads to several open Sixers on the perimeter, with De'Anthony Melton and Nicholas Batum shooting over 40% from three at the moment.
Recently, Embiid has not piled up the assists against the Celtics. He has recorded six assists in just two of the last 12 meetings. However, he had seven assists in the last meeting, which was also just the second without Harden in that span. Boston will likely defend Embiid with Jrue Holiday again today. Embiid will be able to pass over him and see the double team if Boston traps him.
Embiid has dished out eight assists in four of his past five games, including 11 against the Lakers on Monday. You can take Embiid for eight assists at +285 and 10 assists at +850 on DraftKings.
Doncic enters tonight's action averaging 7.9 assists per game. He has dished out eight assists in 11-of-17 games this season, including five of his past eight games. Tonight, he gets the Grizzlies, who have been among the top defenses in the league over the last few seasons. However, that has not been the case this year as they are 4-13 entering tonight's action.
Memphis is 16th in defensive rating this season. It is allowing the fifth-most assists per game to point guards, per FantasyPros. Additionally, it is allowing 15 3s per game and opponents are shooting 40.7% from beyond the arc. Both are worst in the league. Dallas is averaging 16 3s and shooting 37.4% from three as a team this season. Doncic could get at least three to four assists just off 3s tonight.
He has had 10 assists in each of his last two games against the Grizzlies. That includes 12 assists them on October 30th. In that game, Doncic also had a triple-double. Considering that the Grizzlies are also 24th in rebounds allowed this year, he may have another one tonight. You can take Doncic to record a triple-double at +460 on FanDuel.
Jokic has seven triple-doubles through his first 18 games this season. He has finished an assist shy of a triple-double in four more games this season. Jokic is averaging 9.2 assists per game this season after dishing out 15 against the Rockets on Wednesday.
I like his assists tonight, but the line sets at 9.5 at -105 on FanDuel and +105 on DraftKings. Considering that Jokic has 10 rebounds in 17-of-18 games (only missing because of an ejection) this season, if he gets 10 assists tonight, he will likely have another triple-double. So, I am going with the triple-double instead of 9.5 assists for better odds.
Jokic gets the Suns tonight and he had four triple-doubles in eight games against them last season. Three of them came in the conference semifinals series last spring. This will be the first time Jokic has faced the overhauled Suns roster. They are allowing the fifth-most assists per game to centers and also 113 points per game. The assists should not be an issue for Jokic tonight, particularly with Jamal Murray back in the lineup.
Jokic may also have a little extra motivation tonight against old "friend" Jusuf Nurkic. Jokic and Nurkic have had a competitive rivalry since they were teammates in Denver and battling for the center position, which Jokic ultimately won. Last season, Jokic averaged 32 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists with one triple-double in three games against Nurkic last season.
He has seven triple-doubles this season while the rest of the league has eight. Three of them have come from Embiid and Doncic. If you want a fun lotto parlay to sprinkle on, you can take Jokic, Embiid and Doncic for triple-doubles at +15608 odds on FanDuel. I would recommend doing a round robin by two as well.
