Tuesday's night NBA slate is nothing short of interesting as we reach the final stretch of the regular season. With that said, you know it's plenty of opportunity in the player prop market for guys such as Duncan Robinson, Evan Mobley, and more.
Get a full scope on the 3-point prop targets among three of tonight's sizzling matchups.
| Prop | Duncan Robinson O2.5 3PT (-120) |
| Spread | Heat -3 |
| Time | TV | 7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | Bet365 |
This is a fairly soft line for one of the legitimate 3PT snipers in the NBA. Duncan Robinson’s role with the Heat took a huge turn this season with the injuries to Tyler Herro and influx of new talent like Terry Rozier and rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr.
After only averaging 16.4 minutes per game and only 4.6 3PT attempts last season, D-Rob is back with a vengeance this year, averaging nearly double in 3PT shot attempts (8.1) while seeing his minutes increase to 28.5. That’s why this O/U 2.5 line seems soft because these were the typical 3PT lines offered for him last season during the Heat’s miraculous playoff run.
With his shot attempts and minutes up, I’m betting his OVER on 3PT props. He’s been lights out since the All-Star break, averaging 3.1 3PM per game while going over this prop in nine of 14 games (64%). Another factor is the absence of Tyler Herro as that has given Robinson an increased role in the offense. Herro has missed 31 games this season and D-Rob has hit at least 3x 3PT in 22 of them (70%). It’s also worth noting that in the only game Robinson faced the Knicks defense, he went 4-10 from 3PT.
The Pick: Duncan Robinson O2.5 3PT (-120) vs. Knicks
| Prop | Michael Porter Jr. O2.5 3PT (-115) |
| Spread | Nuggets -16 |
| Time | TV | 9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | ESPNBet |
This one really comes down to two factors: home game and quality matchup. Michael Porter Jr. can be hit-or-miss when it comes to 3PT props but he’s been letting it fly, especially since the All-Star break. MPJ is shooting 43.1% from 3PT since the mid-season break while hitting 2.9 3PT makes per game.
The Spurs defense hasn’t fared well at all this year. They’re bottom-five in points allowed and getting abused by opposing forwards as they’ve given up the most 3PT attempts (28.6) and makes (11.8) to the position in the NBA. The latter stat is nearly two more 3PT makes than the second-worst team (9.1, Lakers).
The presence of Wemby will likely steer the Nuggets more to the perimeter as his shot-blocking ability may be too much for players like MPJ or Aaron Gordon to drive to the hoop. It’s also worth noting that when the Nuggets hosted the Spurs early in the season, Porter Jr. went 4 for 9 from 3PT range.
The Pick: Michael Porter Jr. O2.5 3PT (-115) vs. Spurs
| Prop | Evan Mobley Oo.5 3PT (+115) |
| Spread | Cavaliers -12.5 |
| Time | TV | 9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
I could see why you’d look at this and get a bit iffy on backing Evan Mobley for a 3PT prop. But part of the reason why we want to back the third-year forward is simply opportunity.
Since his return to the lineup on March 24th, he’s played five games and hit a 3PT in four of them. In fact, his 3PT attempts per game doubled this past month (1.8) compared to his 3PT attempts prior to the All-Star break (0.8). Clearly, there’s an emphasis on having him take more 3PT shots while sharing the floor with center Jarrett Allen.
The Utah Jazz are obviously mailing in the rest of the season as they have the worst defensive rating in the NBA since the All-Star break. They’re 29th in scoring defense and last in opponent 3PT makes and 3PT shooting percentage while ranking 23rd in overall opponent 3PT attempts. With With Donovan Mitchell out tonight, Mobley may also need to be counted on even more offensively.
