If you like betting on NBA Awards, the Raptors-Sixers game tonight is one that will interest you. Joel Embiid is the betting favorite for league MVP and he is on a ridiculous run right now. The game will also feature two of the top candidates for Most Improved Player in Tyrese Maxey (favorite) and Scottie Barnes. While Maxey has had success against Toronto recently, tonight I will be backing Barnes.
Tyler Herro recently returned from injury and picked up right where he left off getting buckets. Tonight, he gets one of the best matchups in the league against the Atlanta Hawks. He may be in for another big night in Miami.
Speaking of the Hawks, they just left Houston in a game with 261 points. While the Hawks did pull out the win, Fred VanVleet went off in the loss. Tonight, his Rockets are favored at home against a shorthanded Dallas team. He will look to help them get back in the win column.
Barnes comes into tonight's game averaging a shade under 21 points per game at 20.6 on the year. Tonight, we will need 22 from him. However, that should have not been an issue considering that he has this line in seven of his last 10 games. In that span, he is averaging 23.4 points per game and he finished 20 points in another stretch in that span.
Barnes has also enjoyed a ton of success against the Sixers of late. He scored 29 points in the final regular season meeting last season. He has also scored 24 points exactly in the first two meetings against the Sixers this season.
Barnes made two 3s in each of the first two meetings against the Sixers. He is averaging two 3s per game and shooting 38.1% from deep on 5.1 attempts per game this season. Barnes' improvement to his jumper have made him more efficient and increased his volume overall.
He is shooting 49.1% from the field on 15.8 field goal attempts per game, both-career highs. He is also getting to the free throw line 4.1 times per game. With his improved arsenal, I like Barnes to stay hot and score at least 22 points against the Sixers once again.
Herro has played just 10 games so far this season. However, in those games, he has scored at least 24 points six times. He scored 22 points in two other games and left another early due to injury. Since returning to the lineup, Herro has scored 25 and 28 points in his last two games.
We've had a lot of success targeting both for and against the Hawks this season and they present an elite matchup for Herro as well. The Hawks are giving 123 points per game and are 28th in the league in points allowed per game. They are allowing 13.5 3s on 38.5%, ranking 22nd in 3s allowed per game and 25th in 3-point percentage defense. It is worth noting that Herro has went over in just one of the last five meetings against the Hawks, but that came when he scored 26 points in his last game against them last April.
Volume is one of the things I like to target, particularly with points props, and Herro has never been shy once he gets his opportunity. He is averaging a career-high 18.7 field goal attempts per game and 7.2 3s per game. He is shooting 47.1% from the field and 41.7% from deep, both career-highs as well. Additionally, he is shooting nearly 91% at free throw line.
The Heat will need even more scoring from him with Jimmy Butler out tonight. At 23.6 points per game, we essentially need an average game from Herro here. However, he has also scored 30 and 35 points in two games this season. You can take Herro for 30 at +230 and 35 at +650 on FanDuel.
In his first season in Houston, VanVleet is averaging 17.7 points and nine assists per game. His steady play has helped make the Rockets a surprise playoff contender, but admittedly, he has not hit this line all that consistently. However, he has smashed it in his past two games.
VanVleet has 44 and 47 points and assists combined in his last two games. He has done half of the work with assists with 17 and 15 assists in his past two games. VanVleet is not going to average 16 assists per game for the rest of the season, but 10 (his line is 9.5 tonight) will put him in range if he scores 20 points tonight.
He has scored at least 22 points in five of his last 10 games, including each of the last three games where he has averaged 27 points per game. Tonight, VanVleet has a high-level matchup against for both points and assists. Dallas is 21st in points allowed and 23rd in assists. Tonight, it will be without Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Josh Green and Dante Exum in the backcourt.
Doncic and Irving are not elite defenders themselves. However, if head coach Jason Kidd assigns Derrick Jones Jr. to Jalen Green, VanVleet will likely see a lot of Seth Curry and Jaden Hardy. I like his chances in those matchups along with his chances of getting 31 points and assists for the third straight game.
