We began the week with a winning night of NBA props and were one Scottie Barnes' bucket away from the sweep. Tonight, we go again with a larger slate and another night of In-Season Tournament action.
There are a couple of rematches from Sunday night that I have my eye on, beginning with the 76ers hosting the Pacers. Tyrese Maxey went for 50 points on Sunday night and he may be in for another big game against them once again.
The Timberwolves have the No. 1 defense in the NBA and they suffocated the Warriors on Sunday night. They now have wins over the Nuggets, Celtics and Warriors. Anthony Edwards led the way on Sunday and he may fill up the stat sheet again.
Let's dive into my three best NBA prop bets today and see which NBA player props I'm targeting for Tuesday's action.
If you've read my work this season, you have probably gathered that Tyrese Maxey is a player I love backing. Thus far, we are 1-1 on Maxey with the hit coming last Friday against the Pistons.
In that game, Maxey scored 29 points, nearly missing his value line of 30 points. On Sunday, not only did Maxey climb his full ladder, he went off for 50 points against the Pacers. In the process, he became the second-youngest player in franchise history to score 50 points.
Defending scoring guards has been an issue for the Pacers dating back to last season. Donovan Mitchell and Jordan Clarkson have both already lit them up for 33 points or more this season. Maxey is averaging 35 points per game in his last three games against the Pacers. He has scored 30 points in two of those games and finished with 24 points in the other.
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I would expect that Maxey receives a little more attention tonight. However, the Pacers really cannot load up on him because of Joel Embiid's presence.
In Sunday's game, Embiid dished out seven assists while scoring 37 points himself. Myles Turner is the only Pacer that has a chance of guarding him. If Turner is off the floor or in foul trouble, Embiid will likely draw more double teams and that will also make it harder to double Maxey.
Once Maxey gets revved up, it will be hard to slow him down. He is averaging 20 field goal attempts in 38 minutes per game this season. However, he has been highly efficient as he is currently on pace for a 50-40-90 season.
Maxey has a long way to go to before that becomes a reality and I do not expect him to score 50 points again. However, 27-30 points is reasonable with his volume and this matchup.
Tyrese Maxey Over 28.5 Points (-115)
The Denver Nuggets have been playing the last few games without Jamal Murray, but their winning streak just came to an end on Sunday in Houston.
Tonight, the Nuggets are back home where they are still undefeated on the young season. Reggie Jackson has moved into the starting lineup in place of Murray and provided some scoring punch.
Jackson has hit this line in two of his last three games as a starter and three of his last four games, including the game that Murray was injured. In the three games that Jackson went over, he knocked down at least two 3s in each of those games. Jackson is shooting 36.6% from deep this season and 42.8% over his past four games.
Jackson also took double-digit field goal attempts in each of those games. He has averaged over 10 field goal attempts per game in parts of seven seasons as a starter in his career. Jackson has never been bashful about shooting when he gets the minutes.
Tonight, opportunity meets narrative for him as well.
Jackson spent three years with the Los Angeles Clippers and hit some big shots in the Clippers' postseason runs over in that span. Last year, he was traded to Charlotte and landed with the Nuggets after he was bought out.
The Clippers backcourt now has Russell Westbrook and James Harden, Jackson's former teammates in Oklahoma City. Since then, Jackson and Westbrook have had some tense moments on the floor.
The Nuggets offense will run through Nikola Jokic first and foremost, but he will set open looks for everyone, including Jackson. If Jackson is a little more aggressive going against his former team and teammates, he will likely score 12 points tonight.
Pick: Reggie Jackson Over 11.5 Points (-118) |
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Rudy Gobert is averaging 12.8 rebounds per game and has 10 rebounds in every game this season. He secured his 10th on Sunday with a minute and a half left in the game, but he still went under his line of 11.5 rebounds. Kevon Looney also went under his line of 8.5 rebounds, finishing with six.
On Sunday, I faded both Gobert and Looney because of their high lines and I knew both teams would take a lot of threes (70 combined), which turn into long rebounds.
I was more interested in the perimeter players in the game since it would be easier for them to collect those rebounds and at more reasonable lines.
For the Warriors, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins combined for 14 rebounds. For Minnesota, Anthony Edwards had six rebounds. However, he also handed out seven assists, giving him 13 combined rebounds and assists.
With Sunday's performance, Edwards has now hit this line in five straight games and in seven of nine games this season. He is going over this line on average with 11.7 combined — 6.2 rebounds and 5.4 assists. Edwards is leading Minnesota in assists this season.
Thus far, he has achieved a nice balance of getting his teammates involved before he takes the game over late. On Sunday, he scored 13 of his 33 points in the fourth quarter.
Thirteen could be a lucky number for us if Edwards has 13 rebounds and assists. However, 11 will do the trick tonight.
Pick: Anthony Edwards Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (-108)
