NBA Playoffs Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Heat vs. Pacers Game 4 (Monday, August 24)

Heat vs. Pacers Betting Odds

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Through three games, the Heat have outclassed the Pacers.

The Heat's most valuable player, Bam Adebayo, has made winning plays while the Pacers' most valuable player, Domantas Sabonis, hasn't played at all, and consequently, the Pacers find themselves in an 0-3 hole. 

The Heat’s experienced veterans Goran Dragic and Jimmy Butler have been impressive as they have led a versatile defense and sharp-shooting offense that has overpowered the Pacers in crunch time. 

The Heat have won and covered in all three games, and the under is 2-1.

Game 4 tips off Monday at 6:30 p.m. ET with the Heat as 6.5-point favorites and the total set at 216.5.

Miami Heat

Sunday’s injury report included a wave of new Heat names:

Jae Crowder (left ankle sprain) questionable; Andre Iguodala (left hip soreness) questionable; Derrick Jones Jr. (left ankle sprain) questionable; Chris Silva (left groin strain) questionable; Gabe Vincent (right shoulder sprain) out.

The Heat’s three best perimeter defenders outside of Butler (Crowder, Iguodala and Jones Jr.) are all significant to Game 4, and all are questionable. Crowder and Iguodala have been important cogs in the Heat’s starting and closing lineups because of their defensive versatility and ability to make 3s. 

The Heat and Pacers have had competitive fourth quarters in each game, but the Heat have pulled away down the stretch because of their versatile defense. However, if two or more of Crowder, Iguodala and Jones Jr. are all out, the Pacers have a much better chance of not only covering, but winning outright.

Indiana Pacers

After Game 2, Pacers coach Nate McMillan diagnosed the Pacers' struggles offensively as a result of too much settling for shots on the perimeter instead of attacking the paint and driving and kicking for better looks outside. 

After the Pacers went down 20 points in Game 3, they did a better job of being aggressive offensively and attacking the paint. Malcolm Brogdon led the way with 34 points and 14 assists as he aggressively maneuvered to find and exploit favorable matchups against Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro when they were on the court. 

If the Pacers are going to win a game against the Heat, Brogdon will need to consistently get into the lane to collapse the Miami defense and set up good looks for his teammates. The Pacers have sorely missed Sabonis and his ability to create for others in this series (and his 5.0 assists to 2.7 turnovers per game).

Betting Analysis & Pick

If the Heat are at full strength, I like the Heat to win and cover for the fourth consecutive game. The designation of Crowder, Iguodala and Jones Jr. as questionable gives me some cause for concern as two or more absences among them would seriously hamper the Heat’s perimeter defense. 

If all three are available, I expect them and the rest of the Heat to be laser-focused on finishing the sweep and giving themselves a chance to rest before a second-round battle with the Bucks.

If the Pacers are going to win a game, Brogdon must have a big game. In the first three losses, he has averaged a team-high 24.3 points and 40 minutes per game. I love the value of FanDuel’s Player Performance Double Brogdon 20+PTS/Indiana To Win +450, especially if any of Miami’s perimeter players are unavailable. 

Although I like the Heat to win, I expect the Pacers to be competitive in Game 4. The Pacers have a great head coach in McMillan and a group of competitors that won’t quit. As a result, target better value on the Heat in-game when their odds dip below -150 live.

I trust the Heat to pull out a win in the fourth quarter but the volatility that comes with them taking so many 3s makes me comfortable that their odds will dip below -150 live to pair with the Brogdon player performance double at +450 to secure arbitrage.

The Pick: Heat -150 or better live; Malcolm Brogdon 20+PTS/Indiana To Win +450

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