Last night, a frantic finish in New Orleans secured a winning night. Jaren Jackson Jr. was fouled on an alley-oop attempt with 00.4 seconds left on the clock, but split the pair to send the game to overtime. He had 15 points entering overtime, but scored four points in the period to cash over 18.5 points for us. We ended up one Mikal Bridges assist from another sweep, but we go again tonight.
Joel Embiid is out once again as the Sixers head to Orlando to battle the Magic. Tobias Harris will head into the matchup averaging 30 points per game over his last two games. He may be in for another big night against his former team.
The Bucks lost on Christmas Day to the Knicks, but we cashed on Damian Lillard's points. Giannis Antetokounmpo also had a big game on Monday. Tonight, he will look to continue his dominance over the Brooklyn Nets.
The Thunder cruised to a victory over the Timberwolves last night behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 34 points. It was very sweaty, but we did cash his points under last night. However, Gilgeous-Alexander also had a great floor game. I will be looking to back him as the Thunder host the Knicks tonight.
Tobias Harris Over 20.5 Points (-125)
7:10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Last Friday, Tobias Harris scored 33 points as the Sixers defeated the Raptors. Along with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, they became the second trio of teammates in franchise history to score 30 points in the same game. Harris was already feeling good coming into the Sixers' Christmas Day game against Miami. The team needed him to step up with Joel Embiid out of the lineup and he delivered with 27 points.
It is not a role that Harris is unfamiliar with. Since the start of last season, Harris is averaging 18.7 points in 20 games played without Joel Embiid on the floor. That is nearly a four-point increase on his per game average last season and a two-point increase on his average this season.
If Harris scores 19 points tonight, we would land two points short of this line. However, he faced the Magic last season twice last season without Embiid and he scored 23 and 25 points in those games. The Magic are allowing just 21.4 points per game to power forwards, but several have went over their points lines against them. Kyle Kuzma (twice), Giannis Antetokounmpo, Oshae Brissett, and Jalen Smith have all gone over against the Magic in the last month or so.
Additionally, the Magic are traveling back to Orlando after a road win against the Wizards last night. They are a young team, but the Sixers will have a rest advantage in this one. Harris will look to take advantage as he scored 21 points in 12 of his last 18 games against the Magic after he spent parts of three seasons in Orlando. There may be a bit of motivation for Harris tonight, but either way I like him to score 21 points once again.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 31.5 Points (-125)
7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
The Milwaukee Bucks are second in the NBA in points per game and fourth in offensive rating. Having the services of Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo certainly helps. On Monday, they both scored 32 points as the Bucks scored 122 as a team. However, line movement may be a factor here.
On Monday, Antetokounmpo's points was 31.5 like it is tonight on DraftKings. However, other books have this line at 32.5 points, which would have gone under in his last game. Antetokounmpo has scored 32 points in 16-of-29 games this season and 33 points in 13-of-29 games this season. A one point difference increases his hit rate by 10 percent, but he has a good matchup to clear both tonight.
In his last 11 games against Brooklyn, Antetokounmpo is averaging 35.7 points per game. He has cleared this line in eight of those games and scored 31 points in another. Bucks-Nets used to feature Antetokounmpo going against Kevin Durant and he really got up for those matchups. While those Nets teams were not great defensively, they currently lack a ton of girth at the power forward position.
Antetokounmpo will be defended by Cam Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Royce O'Neale. All three of them will struggle to keep Antetokounmpo out of the lane. In the last meeting, Antetokounmpo shot 55% but he was able to score 35 points while attempting just six free throws. While he is making just 67% of them, Antetokounmpo is averaging double-digit free throw attempts for the third straight season and he is getting almost eight points per game at the line. An uptick in free throws from the previous matchup could lead to a big game for Antetokounmpo and help him to get to 32 points tonight.
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists (-135)
8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Oklahoma City has also been rolling offensively as well, ranking sixth in offensive rating. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has had a lot to do with that with his efficient scoring. However, he is averaging 6.4 assists per game as well. Gilgeous-Alexander has had at least six assists in seven of his past 10 games. In that span, he has had nine assists three times, including last night against Minnesota's top defense.
Gilgeous-Alexander also has had four rebounds in eight straight games, including five rebounds in six of them. He also had five rebounds in both meetings against the Knicks last season. The combination of rebounds and assists has made Gilgeous-Alexander an consistent threat to clear this line.
Gilgeous-Alexander has had 12 rebounds and assists combined in 16-of-27 games this season. We backed him for this line last month against the Kings and it was at -105 then. There is a bit more juice here, but he has hit this line in seven of his last 10 games and had 11 in another. He also has hit this line in each of his last six games and in both matchups against the Knicks last season. The 100% hit rate is why I don't have a problem drinking the juice here.
This line is playable at 12.5 too, but he was hooked twice recently and had 12 rebounds and assists in one of the meetings last season. Six rebounds and six assists will clear this line from Gilgeous-Alexander once again.
