It's Friday night in the NBA, and the stars will be out in Boston. That means some big names for my NBA prop picks for NBA player props tonight.
Luka Doncic will lead the Dallas Mavericks into Boston to take on Jayson Tatum and the Celtics. We may get another shootout between the two young stars, but that won't be the only NBA prop opportunity on Friday.
The Warriors picked up another win against the Knicks last night and finished February 11-3. They were also road Warriors by going 8-1 on the road in the month. However, tonight they are on the second night of a back-to-back in Toronto. That may lend itself to a big night on the glass for Scottie Barnes.
In New Orleans, the Pacers and Pelicans will be completing their home-and-home set. The Pacers won Wednesday's matchup 123-114, but they had a hard time slowing down Brandon Ingram. He will look to have another big performance against them, this time on his home floor.
Let's dive into my NBA player props for Friday, March 1.
NBA Player Props Tonight | Friday, March 1
Since coming out of the All-Star break, Luka Doncic has scored 30 points in each of the past four games. We backed him last Thursday against the Suns, and he scored 41 points. Since, he has taken his show on the road as the Mavericks are on a four-game East Coast trip. They lost the first two games before Doncic recorded a 30-point triple-double on his birthday to beat the Raptors.
The Mavericks will be looking to salvage a split on the road, but they are a 10-point underdog against the Celtics. That means they will need a big performance from Doncic to pull off the upset. That should not be much of an issue considering that he has scored 30 points in seven of his past nine games. In that span, he has almost met his season average of 34.4 points per game. He has also scored 33 points in two of his last three games against the Celtics.
In those games, Jayson Tatum has also scored 30 points in two of three games against the Mavericks. In the other meeting, he scored 29 points and he is averaging 35 points per game over the last three. Over his past 10 games, he has scored 25 points in seven of them and it is well within his season average of 27 points per game.
One of the players guarding Tatum for stretches will be forward P.J. Washington, who Tatum has routinely taken advantage when he torches the Hornets. Dallas is also 21st in defensive rating this season. Recently, it has allowed 25 points or more to RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Donovan Mitchell, Devin Booker, and Victor Wembyanama.
While we already get plus odds for this combo, we will get even more value if Tatum matches Doncic. It is +257 on FanDuel for them to both score 30 points and +905 for them to both score 35 points.
Pick: Luka Doncic 30+ Points / Jayson Tatum 25+ Points Parlay (+139)
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Scottie Barnes was averaging about nine rebounds per game for the first couple of the months of the year. After the Raptors acquired RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickly, he began to lose a few chances per game. Now Barnes has his season average back to 8.3 rebounds per game as he is starting to attack the glass with vigor once again.
Over his last eight games, he is averaging 10.1 rebounds and has hit this line in seven of them. In four of his last five games, he has had 11 rebounds and 12 rebounds in three of those games. During this stretch, Barnes is averaging 15.9 rebounding chances per game. To hit this line tonight, we will just need him to convert nine out of them.
He is in a good spot to do so against the Warriors tonight. Recently, they have given up 10 rebounds or more to power forwards Kyle Kuzma, Lauri Markkanen, John Collins and Kevin Durant. Last night, Precious Achiuwa had eight rebounds as well while teammate Josh Hart had 18 himself. Overall, the Knicks had 56 rebounds as the Warriors missed 31 3-point attempts. Tired legs on the second night of a back-to-back may lead to a few more misses for them.
It would be great if Barnes followed in Hart's footsteps on the glass tonight, but there is value on him nonetheless. On FanDuel, you can back him at +300 for 12 rebounds and at +700 for 14 rebounds on FanDuel. Getting +300 for a number he has already gotten to at a 60% rate recently is very enticing.
Pick: Scottie Barnes Over 8.5 Rebounds (-118)
Brandon Ingram is averaging 22.4 points per game over his last 10 games. Last Sunday against the Bulls, he scored 22 points on the nose, and if he does so again tonight, he will clear this line for the fourth consecutive game. On Wednesday, he scored 30 points against the Pacers. He did that while shooting just 8-for-20 from the field. He was able to get to the free throw line 13 times and knocked down all of them en route to his big scoring night.
With that performance, Ingram has scored 29 and now 30 points in his last two games against Indiana, which has been a profitable team to target for props all season. Indiana is 28th in scoring defense and 26th in defensive rating this season. It is also allowing the fourth-most points per game to small forwards, which Ingram was already able to take advantage of on Wednesday night.
Ingram is adept at getting to the free throw line and is 26th in the league at 5.1 free throw attempts per game. However, I am expecting positive shooting regression from him tonight. Ingram is shooting 48.8% from the field on 16.5 field goal attempts for this season, which is right on par with his averages over his last 10 games. He also made just one 3 on Wednesday, but he entered the game having knocked down two in four consecutive games.
Ingram is +145 to score 25 points tonight and +400 to score 30 on DraftKings. He has already proven he can get to this number when he can get to this number when his shot is not falling as much as expected- or when if he is 16-for-22 from the field as he did against the Raptors last month.
Pick: Brandon Ingram Over 21.5 Points (-120)
