After losing in the In-Season Tournament quarterfinals in Indiana, the Celtics returned the favor against the Pacers on Saturday night. Tonight, they will go for another road victory over the Pacers. Jayson Tatum may lead the way.
The Heat are back home after a road out West. They are favored over the Rockets tonight, however, they may get a victory without a monster game from Bam Adebayo on the glass.
The Bucks are also back home against the Jazz after a frustrating road trip. Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming off a 48-point, 17-rebound performance against the Rockets on Saturday night. However, he will also have to facilitate without Damian Lillard tonight.
Yesterday's Action Network NBA props went 2-0. Let's dive into the NBA player props I'm locking in tonight.
NBA Player Props Tonight
Jayson Tatum Over 38.5 PTS + REB (-120)
7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
For this first pick tonight, keep an eye on the injury report as Jayson Tatum is questionable with left ankle sprain management. However, his props are listed and he is as durable as any player in the league so I would expect him to play tonight. If he does, he should dominate his matchup against the Pacers.
Tatum has scored 30 points in five of his last seven games and in each of his last six games against the Pacers. Targeting forwards against the Pacers has been profitable all season as they are allowing the most points per game to power forwards and the third-most points per game to small forwards, Tatum's two primary positions. In Saturday night's game, Tatum nearly cleared this line with just points, scoring 38 in the victory.
Tatum is also one of the best rebounders in the league for his position. He is averaging 8.7 rebounds per game this season and he has at least eight rebounds in six of his last 10 games. He has also pulled down 13 rebounds twice in his last three games, including against the Pacers on Saturday. The Pacers are allowing the fifth-most rebounds per game to both small forwards and power forwards as well.
Should Tatum play tonight, I expect him to score 30 points as he is averaging 34.3 in his last six games against the Pacers. If he does, he may not need a big game on the glass. However, 28 points and 11 rebounds would cash this line as well. He has gone this line in each of his last three games and each of his last six games against the Pacers. I expect those trends to continue tonight.
Bam Adebayo Under 11.5 Rebounds (-130)
7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Three times in his last seven games, Bam Adebayo has pulled down 15 rebounds. In three other games, he has had 11 rebounds. As a result, his rebounds line is a bit inflated tonight. Adebayo has had 12 rebounds just three times in his last 10 games and he is averaging 10.3 rebounds in that span. That is essentially the same as his 10.4 rebounds per game for the season.
Adebayo has gone under this line in 18-of-25 games this season and in 73-of-99 games since the start of last season. He has not faced the Rockets this season, but he had nine rebounds in his lone game against them last season. Adebayo has a fairly favorable matchup against the Rockets tonight. However, in the last couple of weeks, just three starting centers have had 12 rebounds against the Rockets. A few notable rebounders to go under in that span includes Jusuf Nurkic, Jonas Valanciunas, and Clint Capela.
If Adebayo is going to dominate the glass tonight, he will likely have to do it at the defensive end. Houston is allowing just 10.5 offensive rebounds per game, 10th-fewest in the league. Adebayo often lands on 10 or 11 rebounds and I believe his line is a rebound too high tonight. I'll take -130 here considering he is going under at over a 70% clip.
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Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 7.5 Assists (-115)
8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
The Bucks have lost three of their past four games, but don't blame their offense. They are still third in offensive rating this season. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been dominant, particularly of late, as he has scored 30 points in seven of his last 10 games. However, in that same span, he is also averaging 7.6 assists per game.
Tonight, the Bucks will be without Damian Lillard for personal reasons. That means Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton will be the primary ballhandlers tonight and I am expecting Antetokounmpo to be the primary initiator. He will have a great matchup for assists tonight against the Jazz.
Utah is 23rd in points allowed per game and defensive rating. It is also 28th in assists allowed per game. Antetokounmpo also had 11 assists in his last game against the Jazz last March. He has had 11 assists twice in his last 10 games, clearing this line in four games overall. He finished with seven assists in two other games in that span. Without Lillard, I expect Antetokounmpo to go over this line and would not be surprised if he cracked double-digits again. You can take him for 10 assists at +290 and 12 assists at +800 on FanDuel.
Pick: Antetokounmpo Over 7.5 Assists |
