It's Tuesday, Jan. 2 and we have a six-game NBA slate on deck. Let's dive into the NBA player props I'm locking in tonight, including a two-leg parlay to tail.
After a 4-0 start with Ja Morant back in the lineup, the Grizzlies have lost their last three games. Tonight, they are a double-digit favorite at home against the Spurs. Desmond Bane's long range marksmanship help get them back in the win column.
The game of the night is in Oklahoma City where the Celtics will be in town to take on the Thunder. All eyes will be on Jayson Tatum and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but I will be backing a pair of big men that will be going against each other.
The Magic are in San Francisco tonight to take on the Warriors, who have lost their last three games. Jonathan Kuminga will look to help them snap that streak by contributing on the glass.
NBA Player Props Tonight
Desmond Bane Over 3.5 3-Pointers (+105)
8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Against the Clippers on Friday night, Desmond Bane saw a 14-game streak with at least 3-pointers come to an end. He started a new one on Sunday with three against the Kings on Sunday. The streak is important here because it lets you know that Bane should have the volume to get the attempts up.
Tonight, we need four 3s from Bane, and he has cleared this line in eight of his past 15 games (53%). In six of those games that Bane, Bane has attempted at least eight 3s and he had 10 attempts or more in four of them. With a shooter like Bane who is over 40% from 3 for his career, if he is going to get 10+ looks from deep, I'll take plus odds on him knocking down four of them. That is especially true with a matchup against the Spurs.
The Spurs are the worst team in the league at defending the 3 and are allowing 14.5 per game. Opponents are shooting 39.2% from 3 against them as they rank 29th in 3-point percentage defense. Jayson Tatum, Jerami Grant, Malcolm Brogdon, Lauri Markkanen, Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Grant Williams have made at least four 3s against the Spurs in the last 10 days.
Opponents have been sending blitzes at Ja Morant over the last few games and that has been contributed to the Grizzlies being blown out the last three games. As a result, Bane hasn't played his full complement of minutes. However, more attention to Morant should create more open looks for him and it would not be surprise if he has four 3s through three quarters tonight.
Pick: Desmond Bane Over 3.5 3-Pointers (+105)
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Chet Holmgren/Kristaps Porzingis 15-Points Parlay (-109)
8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
The Thunder have been looking dangerous in the West and Chet Holmgren is one of the many reasons why. Holmgren is averaging 17.7 points this season and he has a line of 17.5 points tonight. After four straight games of 16, 14, and 17 points twice, Holmgren has now hit that line in six consecutive games. Holmgren is at a healthy 60% rate over his past 10 games and 53% over his past 15 games. However, his hit rate increases by 20% when you take him for 15 points as he has done in 12 of his last 15 games.
Tonight, Holmgren's matchup will be Kristaps Porzingis, who has also played well over the last month. Porzingis is averaging 20 points per game this season, over his last 10 games, and last 15 games. He has gotten to 20 points at a 60% clip in both his last 10 and 15 games. However, like Holmgren, he has scored 15 points in 12 of his last 15 games. That includes two in which he finished with 14 points.
Porzingis was one of the original "unicorns" to enter the league over the last decade for his 3-point shooting and rim protection. Holmgren is part of the new wave as he was the second pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. They both should find success behind the arc tonight. The Celtics and Thunder are 23rd and 24th in 3s allowed as they are both allowing about 14 per game.
Porzingis and Holmgren have each made a 3 in 12 of their past 15 games. With an 80% chance of them both making threes and scoring 15 points, I'll take -109 for them to both score 15 points.
Pick: Chet Holmgren/Kristaps Porzingis 15-Points Parlay (-109)
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Jonathan Kuminga Over 4.5 Rebounds (-122)
10 p.m. ET | NBA TV
The Warriors are typically a team that rebounds by committee. As a result, they have four players tonight with lines between 3.5 and 4.5 rebounds. One of them is Jonathan Kuminga, who has taken advantage of Draymond Green's latest suspension.
Over his last 10 games, Kuminga is averaging 14.2 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Tonight, we will be focusing on the rebounds. Kuminga has had four rebounds in each of his last 10 games and that has helped him clear this line in seven of them. He was coming off a game in which he had just nine rebounds against the Mavericks.
Tonight, the matchup is tougher against the Magic. Orlando is allowing the third-fewest rebounds per game and fourth-fewest to power forwards. However, this line is one below his average of late. Additionally, the chances will be there.
Orlando's offense is 26th in offensive rating, but it is also seventh in defensive rating on the road. That means you could have a game with a lot of misses on both sides for a game where I lean towards the under (230.5). Over his past 10 games, Kuminga is averaging 10.6 rebounding chances per game. Tonight, we will just need him to grab half of them to hit this line.
Pick: Jonathan Kuminga Over 4.5 Rebounds (-122)
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