It is a big week in the NBA as the trade deadline just three days away. Charlotte could be looking to move a few players, but Brandon Miller, who is beginning to show why he was taken No. 2 overall in the 2023 NBA Draft, certainly won't be on the move.
Meanwhile, the Warriors split their back-to-back over the weekend, beating the Grizzlies and losing to the Hawks in overtime. Tonight, Golden State will continue its road trip in Brooklyn, in which I'll be backing Jonathan Kuminga.
Over his past 10 games, Brandon Miller is averaging 22.7 points per game. He has hit this line in three of his past four games and in seven of his past 10. He also finished with 21 in another game in that stretch. More recently, Miller has scored 28 points in three of his past four games, including 35 points last night against Indiana.
I try to avoid backing players on the second end of a back-to-back, but the Hornets aren't traveling here and Miller is rookie who hasn't been listed on the injury report. So, I'm going to trust the young legs. Additionally, Miller may be feeling pretty good when he sees this matchup.
Per FantasyPros, the Lakers are allowing the fourth-most points per game to shooting guards, the 13th-most points to small forwards and the 12th-most points to power forwards. Miller has spent time at all three positions this season, but has played more at the forward spots of late. The Lakers are also allowing most 3-pointers per game and Miller is a knockdown shooter.
Miller has made three 3-pointers in seven of his past 10 games. In that span, he is shooting 42% on 7.7 3-point attempts per game. As a result, his base 3-pointers made line (2.5) doesn't have a lot of value in the neighborhood of -160 to -170 odds. He has made five 3s in each of his past two games and five more tonight would put him almost two thirds of the way toward this line. Miller is +380 for 30 points and +390 for five 3s on FanDuel, if you want to sprinkle on a few value lines.
Jonathan Kuminga scored 20 points in eight consecutive games. Despite overtime in Atlanta, the streak came to an end as Kuminga fouled out. However, he has still hit this line in eight of his past 10 games and is averaging 23.3 points per game in that stretch.
Tonight's total is at 237.5 points and there are a few players I lean toward going over their points total, including Stephen Curry. However, Curry is coming off a 60-point performance in Atlanta and also scored 37 points against Brooklyn in December. As a result, Brooklyn may prioritize making sure that Curry scoring 30 points is not the reason it loses tonight.
Given the way Kuminga and Klay Thompson are trending, I have more trust in Kuminga being the Warriors' second-leading scorer tonight. With Kuminga's strong play, he has gotten more and more opportunities in the offense. He has taken at least 11 shots in each of his past nine games and is averaging 15.5 shots per game in that span. He's also shooting 63.2% from the field during this stretch.
Kuminga is explosive getting to the basket and in transition. Though not a huge part of his game, he also has a made a 3-pointer in eight of his past nine games and two 3s in four of them. He is getting to the free-throw line about five times per game and making about four of them over his past 10 games. He will have multiple avenues to getting to 20 points tonight.
