Last night, Jalen Duren's foul trouble ruined the sweep, but we still ended up with a profitable night. Tonight, I am backing four scorers, beginning in Washington.
The Wizards lost by double digits to the Timberwolves last night. They are at home again tonight where they will be hosting the Jazz, who will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak of their own. Collin Sexton and Lauri Markkanen should lead the way.
The win by the Timberwolves kept themselves tied atop the West along with the Thunder and a half-game ahead of the Nuggets for the third seed. The Nuggets will try to force a three-way tie again when they visit the Knicks tonight for the final game of their road trip. A bounce back effort from Michael Porter Jr. would help those efforts.
While the Nuggets are finishing their trip East, the Bulls are in the middle of a three-game trip out West. They probably feel like they let one slip away as they a blew 23-point lead to the Suns. However, Coby White was sensational in that game and finished an assist shy of a triple-double. He will look to follow that up with another strong game against the Lakers.
Let's dive into my top three NBA player props tonight — Thursday, January 25.
Collin Sexton has scored 20 points in seven straight and 12 of his last 15 games. In his last 15 games, he is averaging 22.3 points per game and his line is 22.5 tonight. While I do lean towards his over, he has gotten to 23 just six times in that span while being hooked on 22 four times. Watering down him to 20 points doubles his hit rate.
In the Jazz free-flowing offense, they have several options to score 20 points on any given night. However, the most likely option is Lauri Markkanen, who leads the team in scoring at 23.6 points. Markkanen has scored 20 points in eight of his last 10 games. Dating back to the start of last season, he has reached 20 in 77-of-100 games.
Sexton and Markkanen will face a Wizards team that is allowing is last in both points and assists allowed per game. Sexton is among six Jazz players averaging four assists or more per game. A few of those passes will make their way back to him and Markkanen. Washington is also allowing the sixth-most points per game to power forwards, which will benefit Markkanen.
The Wizards are also allowing opponents to make 37.9% of their long range attempts, ranking 21st in three-point percentage defense. Sexton is shooting 37.9% from deep while Markkanen is at 39%. A few threes will help both of them get to 20 points tonight.
Pick: Collin Sexton / Lauri Markkanen 20+ Points Parlay (-121)
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On Tuesday night, Michael Porter Jr. scored just five points and shot 2-for-9 from the field. However, he entered that game battling an illness and tried to play through it. He has now had two more days to get over it and he is not listed on the Nuggets injury report tonight. Tonight presents a great opportunity to buy low on him.
Porter Jr. is averaging 16.1 points per game this season and over 15 per game over both his last 10 and 15 games. He has scored 14 points at a 60% clip in both his last 10 and 15 games. He is even averaging 14.5 points per game on the road. With all of that in mind, this line is either a point or two too low.
One reason it may be this low is because he may be guarded by O.G. Anunoby tonight. However, given that Jamal Murray is the Nuggets No. 1 perimeter threat, I expect Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau to cross-match and have Anunoby on Murray instead. That would put Donte DiVincenzo or Josh Hart on Porter Jr. and he will be able to easily shoot over both of them.
Even if Anunoby guards Porter Jr., he will still find open looks just from sharing the floor with Nikola Jokic. Porter Jr. is shooting 48% from the field and 40% from three-point range this season. He will not have many shooting games like Tuesday. If he bounces back, he will score 14 points tonight and possibly 20 as well. He has scored 20 points in seven of the last nine games that he has cleared this line. You can take him for 20 points at +330 on FanDuel.
Pick: Michael Porter Jr. Over 13.5 Points (-120)
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Coby White is averaging 18.8 points per game this season, but it did not take long for him to flip a switch. He is averaging 22.1 points over his last 30 games. He has cleared this line in 18 of those games as well as seven of his last 10 games recently. That includes a 26-point outing on Tuesday night.
Tonight, White gets the Lakers and while he did not clear this number in the first meeting, they still present a good matchup for him. The Lakers are allowing the most made threes per game in the league. White, a 40% 3-point shooter this season, has made three three-pointers in six of his last 10 games and four three-pointers in five of them. He has also knocked down three in each of his last three games against the Lakers as well.
The Lakers are allowing the 12th most points to point guards this season. In the last two weeks, Sexton, Luka Doncic, Spencer Dinwiddie, James Harden, Russell Westbook, and Malcolm Brogdon all cleared their points line against the Lakers. Immanuel Quickley and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander topped 21 points against them as well.
White is playing over 37 minutes per game and shooting over 16 field goal attempts per game over the last two months. He will have the volume and opportunity to hit this line tonight.
Pick: Coby White Over 21.5 Points (-115)
