The Portland Trail Blazers are coming off their second 60-point loss of the season against Miami. They will continue their road trip in Orlando tonight, which may lead to a tough night for Scoot Henderson.
The Bulls enter tonight's action 1.5 games up on the Hawks for the ninth spot in the East. That makes it an important game for home-court in the Play-In Tournament. Bogdan Bogdanovic will look to help the Hawks inch closer with his long-range markmanship.
However, first we will begin in Charlotte where Jaylen Brown and the Celtics will be taking on the Hornets.
Believe it or not, the Charlotte Hornets lead the season series entering tonight's matchup against the Celtics after winning the first meeting way back in November. In that game, Jaylen Brown did not shoot well. However, he did have three assists as the Celtics scored 118 points. Tonight, Brown's assists line looks very favorable given his trends and this matchup.
For the season, Brown is averaging 3.7 assists per game -which means on average he is closer to four assists than the three we will need tonight. He has had three assists in 68% of his games this season. He has upped that trend to 73% over his last 15 games. Several of those games he has had exactly three assists, but he has had four assists or more in six games in that span.
That includes six assists on Saturday in New Orleans, who present a tougher matchup than he will see tonight. The Hornets are 28th in assists allowed this season. Combined, they are allowing 9.8 assists per game to shooting guards and small forwards, which are Brown's two primary positions.
The Hornets will not travel, but they are playing on the second night of a back-to-back after allowing 130 points to the Clippers. They will have to deal with a Celtics offense averaging 120.9 points per game and can explode any night from three. Tonight, we just need three of those baskets to be assisted by Brown.
Pick: Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 Assists (-140)
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Despite Friday's loss, Scoot Henderson scored 20 points against the Heat. He has now scored 20 points in three of his last five games. However, going back further, those three games are the only games that he has cracked the 20-point plateau in his last 15 games. In that span, he is averaging 14.8 points per game.
For tonight's game, Anfernee Simons will be out once again, missing his fifth consecutive game. Simons' absence has contributed to the scoring jump for Henderson. However, Henderson is averaging 13.3 points in 18 games without Simons this season, scoring 19 just in four of them. Given tonight's matchup, I do not expect him to reach 19 tonight either.
Henderson will be defended by Jalen Suggs tonight, a player that may earn an All-Defensive Team selection for his play this season. Suggs has had two steals or more in six of his last eight games while Henderson has had four turnovers in his last five games. When he gets by Suggs, Henderson will have to finish over a lot of length whether Wendell Carter Jr., Paolo Banchero, Moritz Wagner, or Jonathan Isaac is in the game.
Orlando is allowing the eighth-fewest points in the paint per game this season and the second-fewest points to point guards as well. Henderson is shooting 38% from the field, 50.8% inside of three feet, and 30.3% from three-10 feet, all of which rank among the worst in the league among qualified players. With the Magic defense he will be facing tonight, I expect Henderson to struggle once again.
Pick: Scoot Henderson Under 18.5 Points (-115)
Over his last five games, Bogdan Bogdanovic is averaging 22.4 points per game. He put a dent in that number on Saturday when dropped 38 points against the Bucks. In that game, he got 15 of those points on five triples. He has knocked down four 3s in four of his last 10 games. However, I love this line as plus odds given this matchup.
The Bulls allow nearly 40 3-point attempts per game and are 29th in the league, allowing 14.6 made 3s per game. Bogdanovic, a player who is not bashful about shooting from deep both on the catch and off the dribble, has taken advantage of this matchup. In his last six games against the Bulls, he has made at least three triples in all of them, including three games with five. He is averaging 21.3 points per game in that span, scoring 22 points in each of the last three.
Bogdanovic is shooting 43% and averaging 8.2 3-point attempts over his last 10 games. However, a game of particular interest to me came the Pelicans. Like the Bulls, the Pelicans allow a ton of 3-point attempts and in that game, Bogdanovic went 7-for-15 from deep. We may only need nine or 10 attempts for him to cash this line tonight. However, if he does get really hot tonight, he may have another big night from distance. On FanDuel, you can back Bogdanovic for five 3s at +250 and at +550 for six.
