When you think of the best NBA big men in the game today, Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid are two of the first to come to mind along with Nikola Jokic. Davis and Embiid will square off tonight when the Sixers host the Lakers. While Embiid may have a big night as well, I believe there is more value on Davis.
Yesterday, the Trail Blazers relinquished a 24-point lead as the Bucks rallied for the largest comeback in the NBA this season. Tonight, they will be in Indiana and Malcolm Brogdon will be in his old stomping grounds. He may be feeling generous against his former team.
Meanwhile in Detroit, the Pistons will host the Wizards with the teams tied for the worst record in the NBA. Despite the bad starts, a total of 235 indicates that oddsmakers are expecting a ton of points on the board. I will be backing Jaden Ivey as he is starting to find his footing in sophomore season.
Anthony Davis Over 23.5 Points (-104)
7 p.m. | NBA TV
Recently, we backed Anthony Davis following a subpar performance for his standard against the Kings. While he did bounce back with a double-double, he only scored 16 points against the Trail Blazers. Since then, he has scored 26 points or more in three of his last four games. Most notably, he scored 32 points against on Saturday against Cleveland's twin towers of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.
Tonight, Davis has to battle Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia Sixers. However, Embiid has not daunted Davis much in their matchups. In seven career games against Embiid, Davis is averaging 24 points per game and hit this line in four of those games. He has also scored 31 points in each of the last two matchups and those were also in Philadelphia.
This season, the Sixers are allowing the 14th most points per game to power forwards and the 10th most points per game to centers. Whether Davis gets his minutes at the four or five tonight, he should have a solid matchup. The key for him will be staying out of foul trouble which can be an issue against Joel Embiid. However, Davis had five fouls in the last matchup and still scored 31 points.
In that game, Embiid scored 38 points himself. If you want to sprinkle on Davis and Embiid having another duel, you can take Embiid for 35 points and Davis for 30 points (+310 solo) points at +734 on FanDuel.
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Malcolm Brogdon Over 6.5 Assists
7 p.m. | NBA League Pass
If the NBA scheduled the Celtics for the Trail Blazers on this road trip, I would be inclined to call it the Malcolm Brogdon Revenge Tour. Yesterday, the Trail Blazers were in Milwaukee where Brogdon began his career and tonight they are in Indiana, where the Bucks traded. Against the Bucks, Brogdon had 23 field goal attempts in 34 minutes. While we were focused on his assists here, the high volume indicates how much Brogdon has had the ball in his hands of late.
Brogdon had 12 assists yesterday while the rest of the Trail Blazers had nine. It was the third time in the last six games he has recorded double digit assists. Tonight, we need seven from him and he has hit this line in four of those games. In one of the misses, he left early due to a hamstring injury. However, Brogdon is now healthy again and he has a great matchup.
The Pacers are allowing 25 assists per game. They are last in scoring defense (125.5 points per game) and first in pace. An up-and-down game will help Brogdon pick up several assists before Indiana can set their defense. A pair of teammates who could be recipients of Brogdon's assists are Shaedon Sharpe and Jerami Grant.
Sharpe is an explosive athlete who will likely thrive in transition against the Pacers. Grant is averaging nearly 23 points per game and should be able to take advantage of the Pacers' weakness defending power forwards. A pair of assists each to Sharpe and Grant gets Brogdon with four assists already and he would only need three more assists to the rest of his teammates.
With this matchup, Brogdon may be able to rack up another double digit assists game. If so, he offers value as he is +500 for 10 assists on FanDuel.
Jaden Ivey Over 15.5 Points (-115)
7 p.m. | NBA League Pass
Jaden Ivey closed out his rookie season by averaging 19.3 points and 7.1 assists after the All-Star break. Despite the momentum to close last season, year two got off to a rough start for him. With a new head coach in Monty Williams, Ivey received inconsistent minutes out of the gate as Williams tried to establish a defensive culture with his young team. Then, Ivey had an illness, which kept him out of the lineup for four games.
Ivey has played five games since returning to the lineup and he has scored in double figures in four of them. Over that span, Ivey is shooting 57.4% from the field. He also has played at least 28 minutes in each of his past four games, which has helped him hit this line in each of his past two games.
Ivey scored 25 points on Friday night against Indiana and he gets another great matchup against Washington. The Wizards are allowing the second-most points (125.1) per game in the NBA. Several guards have torched them this season like Luka Doncic, Tyler Herro, Desmond Bane, LaMelo Ball, and Jaylen Brown to name a few. However, they are also running a very small lineup with little rim protection outside of Daniel Gafford. A slasher like Ivey should be happy to be able to take advantage of them.
I have faded the Wizards a lot this season because of the matchup, but I am also trying to be more selective because of the blowout potential in their games. The Pistons are favored by just 3,5 points and have struggled mightily themselves, so this should be a tight game in the fourth quarter. If so, Ivey offers values as FanDuel is offering him at +220 for 20 points and +700 for 25 points. He scored 26 points against Washington last season.
