It's a new day and another set of basketball games for us to bet. So without further ado, let's dive into our top three player prop picks for Monday's NBA slate.
The Sixers are 4-1 overall and 2-0 since the James Harden trade was made official. Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey are leading the team as expected, but they currently have four players averaging over 20 points per game. One of them is Kelly Oubre and he will look to stay hot against the Wizards.
The Warriors saw their five-game winning streak come to an end last night in Cleveland and in Detroit tonight to take on the Pistons. In that game, the Warriors were -10 on the glass. They may have a hard time keeping Jalen Duren off the glass tonight.
Speaking of rebounds, Julius Randle has also been attacking the glass to begin this season. Tonight, he may continue that against the Clippers, who will be welcoming James Harden into their starting lineup tonight.
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Kelly Oubre Jr. signed a one year deal for $2.8 million this offseason and it is already looking like an incredible bargain. Through his first five games, he is averaging 21 points per game while shooting 53.6% from the field and 44.8% from beyond the arc. For his career, Oubre Jr. is at 43.5% from the field and 33.1% from beyond the arc, so regression is likely coming for him.
However, he also always has been a streaky shooter, which even has been true this season. Oubre Jr. has hit this line in three of his first games and in those games he has knocked down 13 of his 19 (68.4%) 3-point attempts. In the other two games, he went 0-for-10 and shot 10-for-27 from the field overall.
Tonight, he gets the Wizards, who are allowing 16 3s per game and their opponents to knock 39.8% of their threes this season, ranking 28th or worse in both areas. On Friday, we backed Tyler Herro's points in part because of their three-point defense. He narrowly cleared his points with 24, but he did knock down four 3s on seven attempts. They have also allowed three 3s or more to Bruce Brown, Desmond Bane, Ziare Williams, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, DeJounte Murray, and Duncan Robinson.
Oubre Jr. has also hit his points line in four of his first five games. I lean towards the over there, but the Sixers are an 11.5-point favorite and blowouts will be a risk with many Wizards games this season. However, Washington will struggle to defend Joel Embiid tonight and he could draw double teams, leading to open 3s for Oubre Jr. With three 3s, we will just need Oubre to get nine points before a possible blowout instead of 18. I'll sprinkle on him to knock down four as well at +340 on FanDuel.
Pick: Kelly Oubre Jr. Over 2.5 Threes (+130)
Jalen Duren is only 19 years old, but it will not be long before he establishes himself as one of the NBA's best rebounders- if he has not already. Duren has pulled down 11 rebounds in four of his first six games this season. Yesterday was the only game of the four that he barely cleared this line with 11 against Phoenix. However, he likely would have pulled down more if he was ejected for a flagrant foul in the fourth quarter.
We backed Duren against Charlotte in the Pistons' second game this season and he pulled down 17 rebounds. He has another great matchup against the Warriors tonight. The Warriors already allowed 11 rebounds or more to Kevin Durant, Jusuf Nurkic, Domantas Sabonis (twice), and Evan Mobley. Sabonis and Mobley had at least 16 rebounds against them as well.
Part of the reason that the Warriors struggle on the glass is because of Steve Kerr's love for small ball. Last night, he played Kevon Looney just 16 minutes despite going against Cleveland's twin towers of Mobley and Jarrett Allen. On the second of a back-to-back, I would expect that Looney plays a bit more tonight since he should have fresh legs. However, I don't believe that deter Duren much.
Duren already has three games with 14 rebounds and two with 16 rebounds this season while big men have been dominating the glass against Golden State. You can take him for 14 rebounds at +290 on FanDuel and 16 at +650 on FanDuel.
Pick: Jalen Duren Over 10.5 Rebounds (-110)
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Now in his 10th NBA season, Julius Randle has averaged over 10 rebounds per game three times and averaged 9.7 and 9.9 rebounds in two other seasons. So if you are into rounding, that is basically five years where he has averaged 10 rebounds per game. However, this season, his line has not been that high. That is partially because of the presence of Mitchell Robinson.
Robinson is averaging 12 rebounds per game this season and has 13 rebounds in four of his first six games. He also has 13 combined rebounds in the other two games. Randle is averaging 10.5 rebounds per game himself and slightly more consistent, hitting this line in five of six games. There have been plenty of rebounds for both of them with how Knicks games have gone this season.
The Knicks are third in defensive rating this season, which is not surprising for a Tom Thibodeau-coached team. The Knicks are averaging 50.8 rebounds per game this season, partially because of their own shooting woes. As a team, they are shooting just below 40% (39.9) from the field. Randle is shooting 27.1% himself and averaging 2.2 offensive rebounds while Robinson is averaging six per game.
The Clippers are fifth in defensive rating this season, but that was before inserting James Harden into their lineup. Tyronn Lue is another coach that likes to play small. Tonight, he could unveil a small ball lineup of Harden, Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and P.J. Tucker to close the game. If Thibodeau counters, Randle will be at the five instead of Robinson. For that reason, I prefer Randle tonight. He also had 11 rebounds in one of the two meetings against the Clippers last night. I like him to pull down nine tonight.
