NBA Player Props Today | Saturday, Jan. 27
With NBA games spread out throughout the day we will target the late slate, which features seven contests. In the table below, you will find my top two NBA player props for Saturday, January 27, including picks for two young and promising players – Alperen Sengun and Brandon Miller.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6 p.m. | |
| 7 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
"Baby Jokic" Alperen Sengun is playing the best basketball of his young career. He has recorded six double-doubles and one triple-double in seven of his last 11 games. Sengun has been a menace on the glass with four double-digit rebounds in his last five games. The only miss was in a blowout victory on Friday where Sengun played 25 minutes.
Sengun leads the Rockets with a career-high 9.1 rebounds and 16.7 rebound chances per game. Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason are second and third on the team in rebounding, but Eason has missed 13-straight games and Smith Jr. has missed three-straight. If both are ruled out again, Sengun will gobble up all of the potential rebounds tonight.
Outside of a skinny Nic Claxton, who is averaging double-digit rebounds per game, the Nets have a weak front court. Backup center Day'Ron Sharpe has been out for a couple of weeks and the Nets are allowing 33.9 rebounds per game, which is the eighth-most in the league. Expect Sengun to continue dominating the glass and get paint touches.
The Nets may play at the fifth-slowest pace in the league, but they are attempting the fifth-most field goal attempts at 91.2 per game. Many of their attempts come from behind the arc, which is why their field goal percentage sits at just 45.8%, tied for the third-lowest in the league. Sengun will get plenty of opportunities with the Nets poor shooting.
Our prop model has Sengun projected for 11.2 rebounds in this matchup, which is well over his prop line. DraftKings has the best value at -110 for Sengun to reach double-digit rebounds. In competitive games, Sengun is playing heavy minutes. He has played at least 40 minutes in three of his last five games. Sengun's odds to record a double-double are -120, but his odds to capture double-digit rebounds is -110. Take the Sengun rebounds prop.
Pick: Alperen Sengun Over 9.5 Rebounds (-110)
Rookie Brandon Miller is starting to find his groove after an inconsistent start to the season. Miller has scored 23+ points in four of his last five games, while shooting 57.4% from the field and 45.1% from behind the arc in those four contests. Remove last night's game from the equation with Miller getting into early foul trouble and only playing 20 minutes. The Hornets lost by 34 points and pulled their starters early in the fourth quarter with the back-to-back.
During that four-game stretch, Miller averaged a 23.6% usage rate per game. He is not afraid to let it fly, especially from downtown, where the Jazz are the most vulnerable. They are allowing opponents to make 14.0 3-pointers per game, which is the third-highest in the league. Miller is shooting 38.4% from distance, which is third among rookies.
The Hornets also traded away guard Terry Rozier earlier this week, which will provide more opportunities for Miller to hunt his shot. He has played 513 minutes without Rozier on the floor this season, which is the most on the team.
During the month of January, the Jazz are playing at the league's fastest pace at 102.89. Pair the up-tempo game environment with how well Miller has played recently, and he will have an incredible chance to hit his over tonight.
Our prop model has Miller projected for 19.6 points, which is more than three points from his prop line. Shop around for the best odds. I love climbing the ladder with this Miller prop. To score 20+ points on the DraftKings is +155 and to score 25+ is +450. That is great value in this spot.
Pick: Brandon Miller Over 16.5 Points (-110)
