Saturday features a five-game NBA main slate with every team in it fighting for a playoff spot. This should be an exceptional night of basketball with no funny business on lineup changes or tanking teams.
There are two player props that stood out the most in the model and that is featuring Nikola Jokic and Kawhi Leonard. Expect them to score like stars, but struggle capturing assists.
Let's dive into the top NBA player props today.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Nikola Jokic, Under 9.5 Assists (+120)
| Spread | Nuggets -2.5 |
| Time | TV | 9 p.m. ET | NBA TV |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
The best teams in their respective conferences take the court in what should be the best game of the night. The home team Denver Nuggets are 2.5-point favorites against the Milwaukee Bucks who have the best record in the league.
Mr. Triple-Double Nikola Jokic has been scoring a lot more than assisting as of late. In his last seven games, Jokic is averaging 29.6 points per game while shooting 67.7% from the field making double digit field goals in every game, but one. During that stretch, Jokic is only averaging nine assists per game.
Our NBA Model has Jokic projected for 8.3 assists, which is over an assist lower than his player prop. The Bucks' lead the league in Defensive Rating (109.6), while allowing opponents to shoot a league-worst 45% from the field and 34.7% from behind the arc. Jokic missed their last matchup due to it being on a back-to-back, but he has struggled in this matchup throughout his career.
In his last eight matchups against the Bucks, Jokic has failed to record double digit assists in six of those meetings while averaging eight assists per game. Pair the tough matchup with the fact that Jokic has failed to reach double digit assists in four of his last five games, and I'll gladly take the juice on his under.
Kawhi Leonard, Under 4.5 Assists (-135)
| Spread | Clippers -5 |
| Time | TV | 10:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Normally it is Kawhi Leonard who is injured or sitting out due to rest. This time it is Paul George who injured his knee and will likely be out the remainder of the regular season. Luckily the Clippers have won six of their last eight games, but are two games ahead of a playoff spot instead of the play-in tournament.
Leonard has played seven games without George this season and is averaging 3.3 more points per game than playing alongside him. His assist numbers have basically stayed the same, which is still below this 4.5 assist prop. Our NBA Model also has Leonard projected for only 3.2 assists, well below this prop line.
The Pelicans' have won three consecutive games as they are in the trenches with all of the other play-in tournament teams. Despite having an under .500 record, they have the seventh-highest Defensive Rating. The Pelicans' allow only 24.8 assists per game, which ranks just outside the top 10 in the league.
Leonard has recorded five and six assists in his last two games, but both matchups were against the Thunder. With a 224.5-point total, this game won't feature many assist opportunities. Especially given the fact that the Pelicans allow the worst 3-point percentage in the league and opponents are scoring only 49.5 points per game in the paint. Take the under on Leonard's assists.
