NBA Player Prop Picks · Wednesday, Nov. 8
After taking Tuesday off in honor of Election Day, the NBA is back tonight with a full slate. We begin in Philadelphia, PA where the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers will renew their rivalry for the first time since meeting in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Kristaps Porzingis is a new addition to the rivalry, and his long-range shooting could boost the Celtics today.
In Denver, CO, the Warriors will take on the Nuggets in a matchup of the last two NBA Champions. Aaron Gordon could fill up the stat sheet in a lot of areas.
In Sacramento, CA, the Kings are still without De'Aaron Fox as he tries to recover from an ankle injury. Still, the Kings are 8-point favorites over the Trail Blazers. However, Malcolm Brogdon will look to help Portland pull off the upset.
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When the Bucks play the 76ers, Brook Lopez usually has a big night from beyond the arc. Lopez has made at least two 3s in five of his last six games against the 76ers and knocked down at least three in four games. Joel Embiid is Philadelphia's defensive anchor, and he really does not like guarding stretch bigs on the perimeter. Many of Lopez's 3s are uncontested.
Al Horford also had many open 3s against Philadelphia in the playoffs, but he shot 27.5% in the series. Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla wants to be able to play five out with shooting all over the floor. That likely made Kristaps Porzingis a priority this offseason, and acquiring him was the first move Boston made.
Porzingis got off to a roaring start, knocking down six 3s and scoring 31 points in his Celtics debut. He has knocked down at least one 3-pointer in all six games this season, hitting this line in three of them. He is shooting 42.9% on 4.7 3-point attempts per game. That means if Porzingis has an average game, he should hit this line with five attempts.
I would expect him to get a few more attempts up tonight, taking advantage of the matchup against Embiid on the offensive end. Porzingis has hit this line in all three games he has attempted at least six 3-pointers this season. He also knocked down three 3s against Philadelphia twice last year while with Washington. You can take Porzingis for three 3s for +235 on DraftKings.
Pick: Kristaps Porzingis Over 1.5 3s (+130)
Aaron Gordon averages 6.6 rebounds and 3.9 assists this season for 10.5 combined. He did not hit this line in his first four games, but he has gone over in each of his last three games. In that span, he is averaging 16.3 rebounds + assists per game. The key here is the injury to Jamal Murray.
Gordon hit this line on Friday with Murray in the lineup, but Murray was injured in the first half against Chicago. With Murray and Nikola Jokic in the lineup, the Nuggets are an excellent passing team, but they get most of the assists. Gordon gets more playmaking opportunities with Murray sidelined. Further, he is averaging 5.7 assists over his past three games.
If Gordon gets five to six assists again tonight, he should not have much difficulty on the glass. He has cleared this line with just rebounds, pulling down at least 12 in each of his last two games. He also had eight against Dallas on Friday. Tonight, Gordon gets the Warriors, and it could be another big rebounding game for him.
Jalen Duren was ruled out on Monday, but we were prepared to fade the Warriors on the glass. On Sunday, Evan Mobley, who plays power forward like Gordon, had 16 rebounds against the Warriors. Golden State will be at a massive size disadvantage against Jokic, Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr tonight.
Gordon has comfortably cleared this combo in his past three games, and he is in a good spot to do so again tonight.
Pick: Aaron Gordon Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (-120)
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In the aftermath of the Damian Lillard trade, Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons, and Shaedon Sharpe are the future of the Trail Blazers' backcourt. However, with Henderson and Simons sidelined, the present is Malcolm Brogdon. The eighth-year vet has started each of the last two games and has averaged 21 points, seven rebounds, and 10.5 assists for 38.5 points, rebounds, and assists per game.
Now, Brodgon did not shoot the ball well in those games at just 30.7% from the field, and he is at just 39.8% this season. However, the volume is there. Brogdon has played 83 minutes and taken 39 field goal attempts over his last two games. That is not far off from his season averages of 31 minutes and 17 field goal attempts per game.
Given that volume, Brogdon has scored 18 points or more in six of seven games this season. Incredibly, he has also scored exactly 18 points three times already. So if we assume Borgdon will score 18 points, then he would need 18 rebounds and assists tonight, which he has been close to on average.
Tonight, Brogdon gets the Kings, who are 22nd in defensive rating. With Davion Mitchell starting instead of De’Aaron Fox, the Kings get an upgrade defensively. However, don’t expect them to try to ice Brogdon out of the game like they would against Stephen Curry. Brogdon should have plenty of opportunity to hit this line. Twenty points, six rebounds, and 10 assists would get us the over here.
