We hit 2-of-3 NBA player props on Saturday night, with the only loss being Jaren Jackson Jr.'s juiced rebound prop.
We're going from the Clash the Glass parlay to the Dropping Dimes parlay featuring Killian Hayes and Austin Reaves on Sunday. Both props for this eight-game NBA slate have juice on their overs.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Killian Hayes, Over 6.5 Assists (+105)
| Spread | Heat -10 |
| Time | TV | 6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Over the past four games, we've seen third-year point guard Killian Hayes emerge. In the span, he's averaged 12.5 points and 9.5 assists per game with two double-doubles. The Pistons continue to lose big, but Hayes is seemingly playing 35 minutes a night regardless.
Hayes has gone over this assist prop in each of his last four games, so even in a difficult matchup against the Heat, this juiced player prop looks enticing. The Pistons are double-digit underdogs against the Heat, who are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. Meanwhile, the Pistons are on two days of rest.
Our NBA Model has Hayes projected for 8.6 assists, which is well over this line of 6.5. This may be a ladder situation, where you take Hayes over assists all the way up to 8.5 if you are feeling risky. He has recorded 11 and 13 assists in two of his last four games, so he's more than capable.
The Heat rank eighth in Defensive Rating this season, but they allow 25.4 assists per game, which is right in the middle of the pack. Over that four-game stretch, Hayes is averaging 18 potential assists per game. This is one of the best props on the board.
Take a look at his teammate Jaden Ivey's assist prop as well. He has averaged 9.3 per game over his last four and his prop is only set at 4.5.
Austin Reaves, Over 3.5 Assists (+110)
| Spread | Lakers -6.5 |
| Time | TV | 9:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
With Patrick Beverley and Russell Westbrook out of the picture, Austin Reaves has started to come into his own for the Lakers, especially passing the ball. Since the All-Star break, Reaves is averaging 15.5 points and 4.9 assists per game to solidify himself as one of the best guards on this team.
Our NBA Model has Reaves projected for 4.5 assists against the Magic, who allow 25.9 assists per game (seventh-most in the league). Getting this prop juiced to the over on 3.5 assists feels like incredible value. Reaves has recorded four or more assists in six of his last seven games.
This is another potential ladder play as Reaves has averaged 5.4 assists per game in his last seven. The Lakers are 6.5-point home favorites against the Magic and are implied to score 118.5 points. That is a lot of opportunity, especially considering the Lakers are still playing without LeBron James.
Over the last seven games, Reaves is second behind D'Angelo Russell, who is averaging 8.4 potential assists per game. With Anthony Davis playing so well recently, that creates even more assist opportunities for Reaves. The Lakers, who have dropped two straight, need to get back to winning to stay competitive in the Western Conference log jam and Reaves dropping dimes will be a key to their success.
Pick: Austin Reeves Over 3.5 Assists |
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