Last night, the Eastern Conference had center stage, and it was a profitable night as we went 2-1 with the Celtics taking Game 1.
Tonight, it's the Western Conference's show as the Timberwolves host the Mavericks at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
For NBA player props tonight, I'll be targeting a pair of Timberwolves — Karl-Anthony Towns and Mike Conley.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 19.5 Points (-128)
Anthony Edwards may have emerged as the breakout star of the playoffs, but the Timberwolves wouldn't be in the Western Conference Finals without Karl-Anthony Towns.
In the Game 7 victory over the Nuggets, Towns had 23 points and 12 rebounds. He scored 20 points in four of the seven games in that series and in five of his last eight games dating back to the first-round series against Phoenix.
Towns has also scored 20 points in three of his last four games against the Mavericks, including a 29-point outing on January 31.
All four meetings came before the trade deadline, so that means that Towns hasn't faced the new-look Mavericks frontcourt. However, while the Mavericks are improved up front, I don't believe that they'll shut down Towns.
If Towns is operating on the perimeter, he'll have an advantage over both Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford. Towns has knocked down two triples in six of his 11 postseason games thus far.
I expect that P.J. Washington will be his primary defender, and Towns has four inches and about 20 pounds on him in that matchup.
Additionally, Towns scored a career-high 62 points against Charlotte, with several points coming against Washington.
Just a third of that total will clear this line tonight. As always, the key for Towns is staying out of foul trouble. However, if he plays 32 minutes tonight, I like his chances of scoring 20 points.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 19.5 Points (-128)
Mike Conley Under 6.5 Assists (-136)
Towns may have a basket or two assisted by Mike Conley tonight. However, I don't expect Conley to reach seven assists in this game.
Conley averaged 4.8 dimes in the four regular season meetings against Dallas, reaching seven assists just once.
He also has had seven assists in just one of his last playoff games. Conley had just five assists in Game 6 and four assists in Game 7 against Denver.
Additionally, Conley played 39 minutes in Game 7. It was a winner-take-all game, but Minnesota survived.
However, Conley has played between 31 and 34 minutes in most games this postseason, and I expect him to land there again tonight. That's also the expectation of the books, given that Conley's points, PRA, assists and 3s are all juiced to the under.
I prefer the assists here with the expectation that this could be a grind-it-out game.
In the playoffs, the Mavericks are allowing just 103.2 points per game, ranking fifth in scoring defense and sixth in defensive rating. Tonight's total is just 207.5 points, which suggests that Conley may not have many potential assists.
He's basically averaging 10 potential assists per game in the playoffs. That means he would have to convert 70% of them to go over this line.
